Will there be two interest rate cuts this year? Is the cottage season really coming?
1: The "small non-farm" data released by the United States this time was lower than Wall Street's expectations, and the labor market further cooled, adding to signs of slow economic growth in the United States. Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice starting in September.
2: Risk assets will benefit. As one of the risk assets, Bitcoin may reach the integer mark of $100,000 in the next two or three months. In addition, Binance's platform currency has also soared, with a market value of over $100 billion, surpassing Starbucks and Meituan.
3: Some other altcoins have also risen sharply, but I personally think it is too early to judge the arrival of the altcoin season. In the past bull market, Ethereum would rise only after Bitcoin rose, and then the altcoins in various sectors would rotate. At present, the Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates, and more funds have not poured into the cryptocurrency circle.
4: ETH's spot ETF has not yet been approved, so the current rise in altcoins is more stimulated by short-term events and is not enough to constitute a long-term sustained market trend.
The last time we analyzed the market, BTC started several big positive lines at the 60,000 level and reached the 71,500 level directly.
According to the analysis at that time, there were two possibilities for the trend:
1. BTC breaks through previous high
2. Adjust again after the shock.
Now, it has once again reached the 7.1w position. Before a strong breakthrough of the previous high, BTC's subsequent trends are still these two.
However, there are two major differences between now and May 23.
Difference 1: From now on, the probability of the second one is higher.
Difference 2: Last time it was said that even if BTC fluctuates, the altcoin will have a good market trend. Then by this time, the volatile trend has been halfway through, and the expected increase in the altcoin in the future will definitely not be as good as on May 23.
Last time, we focused on analyzing the ETH ecosystem because the ETH ETF was approved, but the expected big market for the ETH ecosystem did not actually appear.
And now the operation:
1. From a short-term perspective, if BTC does not experience a significant drop after today, it is likely to be relatively stable on Saturdays and Sundays as usual. In this case, some altcoins may perform well. It is recommended to use charts or other techniques to make short-term buying and selling operations. (Those who do not know how to do this should not participate)
2. From the perspective of longer time period operations, it is recommended to stay put to see whether BTC can break through the previous high and wait for a clearer signal from BTC, because the previous high position of BTC is just a little bit different.
After 3.io goes online, it may have a certain stimulus effect on the AI sector.
Bank of America, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged next week while predicting two rate cuts this year starting in September. The bank said: Upcoming data should convince the Fed that the economy is cooling, but it needs more evidence of slowing inflation before it can cut rates. This forecast coincides with market pricing based on CME data. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut interest rates today as expected, but some analysts sensed a hawkish tone in the central bank's communication, indicating that further rate cuts may not be in the future.
The wave of interest rate cuts in Europe is coming, which will also lead to further interest rate cuts in the United States. Interest rate cuts are expected to be achieved this year, and the day of the interest rate cut will be a time for carnival.
Next, we will remain firmly bullish on Bitcoin. At present, both in the short and long term, the main upward trend has emerged, and everyone should continue to hold firmly.
If you don’t have Bitcoin, I think you can pay attention to the Bitcoin-related ecosystem, such as the meme with the largest ecological consensus, ordi, and some 2nd-layer stx, ckb, etc. These will bring you many opportunities.
At the same time, we should pay attention to other second-layer projects and related applications that have not yet issued coins. In short, there are many opportunities in the second half of the year.
Bitcoin has been slow to challenge the key point of 72,000. Judging from the short liquidation data, there are many shorts here. Therefore, once Bitcoin breaks through and stabilizes at 72,000, it means that a new trend may come, and Ethereum’s corresponding new high will not be far away!
According to the macro data, 8:30 tonight should be a turning point, so you can continue to wait patiently and buy on dips. If it breaks through a new high before the data is released, it may be an opportunity to make a profit. If it continues to fall back before the data is released, it may be a great buying opportunity! The overall trend is upward, and the swing position depends on the situation. The medium and long-term positions ignore short-term fluctuations!
Whether it is rising or falling, I personally think that the release of the Fed data next week is the key among the keys. Therefore, before the release of the Fed data next week, whether it is falling or rising, it is a good opportunity for swing trading! Before the trend market comes! What we need to do is to get more principal and keep the cost of the chips we hold as low as possible!
The next explosive sector and currency is among them!
1: June is the month of AI, with Apple conference, Nvidia AI Summit, etc.
RNDR LPT WLD TAO ARKM in the Ai sector of the cryptocurrency circle are all popular projects!
2: Ethereum ETF is still hot
It has been hyped up again recently and is expected to be passed at the end of June and traded in early July!
Ethereum Ecosystem: Pendle SSV Ldo Ethfi metis uni are all strong projects in the Ethereum ecosystem
3: The European Cup in June is a global sports feast.
The cryptocurrency circle is also a field where sports coins and team player coins all have opportunities.
Sports coin Chz is a popular currency.
French team: FRA German team: GER
The British team ENG strong team MeMe.
European Cup main body MeMe: YURO AIBART
The risks on the chain are high, but the returns are also high!
4. Inscription Plate:
It has been very strong recently. The foreign language sector ORDI has a high popularity and high attention. Cionbase has ORDI futures. It is a good expectation that the spot is not listed! Sats and Rats have certain performances and can be focused on.
