Bitcoin's 4-hour level signal yesterday was already very obvious. The current trend has entered the regional bottom stage. From yesterday to today, the German government has continued to sell, but judging from the market, market panic has eased, and the market has not effectively fallen below the support level near 55,000 again.
There are still many expectations at the macro level in the future, such as the approval of the Ethereum ETF, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the coming to power of a political party that is more friendly to crypto, etc. These will further promote the development of the crypto industry.
Here I would like to remind contract players that the market has once again reached a critical turning point and they must pay attention to the risk of liquidation.
From a historical perspective, we are now in the third stage of the market, the “BTC/ETH season”!
The market is divided into four stages:
1/ General bear season: from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, characterized by a general decline in the entire market.
2/ Washout season: from the bottom of the bear market to the starting point of the next bull market (this round starts on October 12, 2023), it is characterized by fluctuations and slight increases.
3/ BTC/ETH season: from the start of the bull market to the lowest point of the share of altcoins, it is characterized by a general increase, but BTC/ETH has increased more, and the market value share of altcoins has dropped to the lowest.
4/Altcoin season: From the low point of the proportion of altcoins to the peak of the bull market, it is characterized by general increases. Altcoins have risen the most, ETH has also risen very well, and BTC has only increased by 100%.
The above estimates are all based on market capitalization, so it may happen that the market capitalization of altcoins increases but the price does not.
Each stage lasts from 9 to 15 months, which seems to be relatively suitable at present.
The market is currently in the middle of the "BTC/ETH season". This round of the wash season is relatively short, so it is estimated that the BTC/ETH season will be longer. From a time perspective, the last round of "BTC/ETH" ended 8 months after the halving, and now it is 3 months after the halving, a difference of about 5 months.
From the perspective of the increase target, the total increase in the previous round in this season was 480%, and this round of BTC/ETH season increase was only 100%, which is far from enough.
At this stage, ETH is one of the best holdings, as it has performed very well in both the BTC/ETH and altcoin seasons.
The current market hype surrounding the expectation of interest rate cuts and the improvement in liquidity brought about by interest rate cuts will be the biggest external driving force for the subsequent outbreak of the crypto market!
For most investors, perhaps waiting for the release of each core data and earning profits from short-term fluctuations is not the main way to make profits. Therefore, we just need to make it clear that in a longer time span, the market still has the benefit of interest rate cuts to look forward to. This is enough to show that the bull market is most likely not over yet, and pullbacks and consolidations mean the birth of opportunities.
Comparing the consolidation range of this round with that of the previous round, we can see that the current BTC seems to present a panic-inducing "M top" in terms of technical form, but the degree of correction is far less than the more than 50% correction after the first surge in the previous round, and the consolidation time is also much shorter than the previous round.
From a risk perspective, the depth of BTC's pullback is relatively small compared to the previous round. With the addition of external negative factors, it may further decline and test a lower support level.
From the perspective of opportunity, the "M top" was formed in a short time and with a small amplitude. The existence of expectations for interest rate cuts also indicates that the market is likely still accumulating strength for the next climb, and the market has encountered support at around 55,000.
There is a high probability that long-term opportunities exist, and the cost of chips and the preservation of principal will be the determining factors for the next wave of returns.
Want to buy at the bottom? Choose the bottom first!
1: Meme Track
PEPE is one of the most outstanding Memecoins in this cycle, and its price performance in this round is extremely strong.
As for the symbol of PEPE itself, as a meme widely circulated on major social media, it is highly recognizable.
From the perspectives of both market-pulling consensus and cultural consensus, $PEPE is the undisputed first choice for Memecoin investment.
In addition, PEPE’s current market value is approximately $5.3 billion, which has certain odds and market acceptance for reaching the market value level of $DOGE or $SHIB at their peak.
As one of Solana’s most representative Memecoins, WIF has also achieved outstanding performance in this cycle.
The image of wearing a hat has been deeply rooted in people’s minds, and various other Memecoins with images of wearing hats have been derived.
WIF's strong rebound after a decline has also made it a top choice for many investors.
2. RWA track:
ok
Ondo Finance is a decentralized financial platform for RWA. Through blockchain technology, Ondo Finance has created a transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors and is committed to becoming an investment bank on the chain, providing a variety of RWA products including bonds, real estate and commodities to meet the needs of different investors.
With the rapid growth of the RWA market, Ondo Finance, as a pioneer in the industry, has huge development potential.
Its transparent and efficient investment platform will continue to attract more institutional investors and further promote the development and maturity of the market.
3.L2 in the staking track:
Pendle
Pendle splits the volatility and principal of interest-bearing assets by introducing yield tokenization and trading, bringing a new participation paradigm to the entire LSD.
Pendle’s multi-collateral pools and risk management capabilities enable users to manage risk more effectively and hedge potential losses, reducing volatility and risk in the DeFi market.
With the passage of the ETH ETF, a large amount of funds will flow into ETH, promoting the development of the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem. As part of this ecosystem, Pendle is expected to benefit from it.
4.BTC Ecosystem:
DOG
For analysis, please see the Meme section. The expectations of runes are affected by inscriptions, and the market performance can be called "peak at debut". DOG, as the leader of the rune section, has certain defensive attributes while having odds. Therefore, the rune section only recommends DOG for the time being.
Bitcoin's 4-hour level signal yesterday was already very obvious. The current trend has entered the regional bottom stage. From yesterday to today, the German government has continued to sell, but judging from the market, market panic has eased, and the market has not effectively fallen below the support level near 55,000 again.
There are still many expectations at the macro level in the future, such as the approval of the Ethereum ETF, the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the coming to power of a political party that is more friendly to crypto, etc. These will further promote the development of the crypto industry.
Here I would like to remind contract players that the market has once again reached a critical turning point and they must pay attention to the risk of liquidation.
From a historical perspective, we are now in the third stage of the market, the “BTC/ETH season”!
The market is divided into four stages:
1/ General bear season: from the peak of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market, characterized by a general decline in the entire market.
2/ Washout season: from the bottom of the bear market to the starting point of the next bull market (this round starts on October 12, 2023), it is characterized by shocks and slight increases.
3/ BTC/ETH season: from the start of the bull market to the lowest point of the share of altcoins, it is characterized by a general increase, but BTC/ETH has increased more, and the market value share of altcoins has dropped to the lowest.
4/Altcoin season: From the low point of the proportion of altcoins to the peak of the bull market, it is characterized by general increases. Altcoins have risen the most, ETH has also risen very well, and BTC has only increased by 100%.
The above estimates are all based on market capitalization, so it may happen that the market capitalization of altcoins increases but the price does not.
Each stage lasts from 9 to 15 months, which seems to be relatively suitable at present.
The market is currently in the middle of the "BTC/ETH season". This round of the wash season is relatively short, so it is estimated that the BTC/ETH season will be longer. From a time perspective, the last round of "BTC/ETH" ended 8 months after the halving, and now it is 3 months after the halving, a difference of about 5 months.
From the perspective of the increase target, the total increase in the previous round in this season was 480%, and this round of BTC/ETH season increase was only 100%, which is far from enough.
At this stage, ETH is one of the best holdings, as it has performed very well in both the BTC/ETH and altcoin seasons.
The current market hype surrounding the expectation of interest rate cuts and the improvement in liquidity brought about by interest rate cuts will be the biggest external driving force for the subsequent outbreak of the crypto market!
For most investors, perhaps waiting for the release of each core data and earning profits from short-term fluctuations is not the main way to make profits. Therefore, we just need to make it clear that in a longer time span, the market still has the benefit of interest rate cuts to look forward to. This is enough to show that the bull market is most likely not over yet, and pullbacks and consolidations mean the birth of opportunities.
Comparing the consolidation range of this round with that of the previous round, we can see that the current BTC seems to present a panic-inducing "M top" in terms of technical form, but the degree of correction is far less than the more than 50% correction after the first surge in the previous round, and the consolidation time is also much shorter than the previous round.
From a risk perspective, the depth of BTC's pullback is relatively small compared to the previous round. With the addition of external negative factors, it may further decline and test a lower support level.
From the perspective of opportunity, the "M top" was formed in a short time and with a small amplitude. The existence of expectations for interest rate cuts also indicates that the market is likely still accumulating strength for the next climb, and the market has encountered support at around 55,000.
There is a high probability that long-term opportunities exist, and the cost of chips and the preservation of principal will be the determining factors for the next wave of returns.
Want to buy at the bottom? Choose the bottom first!
1: Meme Track
PEPE is one of the most outstanding Memecoins in this cycle, and its price performance in this round is extremely strong.
As for the symbol of PEPE itself, as a meme widely circulated on major social media, it is highly recognizable.
From the perspectives of both market-pulling consensus and cultural consensus, $PEPE is the undisputed first choice for Memecoin investment.
In addition, PEPE’s current market value is approximately $5.3 billion, which has certain odds and market acceptance for reaching the market value level of $DOGE or $SHIB at their peak.
As one of Solana’s most representative Memecoins, WIF has also achieved outstanding performance in this cycle.
The image of wearing a hat has been deeply rooted in people’s minds, and various other Memecoins with images of wearing hats have been derived.
WIF's strong rebound after a decline has also made it a top choice for many investors.
2. RWA track:
ok
Ondo Finance is a decentralized financial platform for RWA. Through blockchain technology, Ondo Finance has created a transparent investment infrastructure for institutional investors and is committed to becoming an investment bank on the chain, providing a variety of RWA products including bonds, real estate and commodities to meet the needs of different investors.
With the rapid growth of the RWA market, Ondo Finance, as a pioneer in the industry, has huge development potential.
Its transparent and efficient investment platform will continue to attract more institutional investors and further promote the development and maturity of the market.
3.L2 in the staking track:
Pendle
Pendle splits the volatility and principal of interest-bearing assets by introducing yield tokenization and trading, bringing a new participation paradigm to the entire LSD.
Pendle’s multi-collateral pools and risk management capabilities enable users to manage risk more effectively and hedge potential losses, reducing volatility and risk in the DeFi market.
With the passage of the ETH ETF, a large amount of funds will flow into ETH, promoting the development of the LSD/LSDfi ecosystem. As part of this ecosystem, Pendle is expected to benefit from it.
4.BTC Ecosystem:
DOG
For analysis, please see the Meme section. The expectations of runes are affected by inscriptions, and the market performance can be called "peak at debut". DOG, as the leader of the rune section, has certain defensive attributes while having odds. Therefore, the rune section only recommends DOG for the time being.
