06/05 Market Analysis
🐶Flow analysis
The data opened well last night. After the data was released, the market pulled back by 2 bars and hit 71,000 again. Although there was a slight decline, the increase was "volume-driven", so I still analyzed it the same as in the past, "I am optimistic about Q2, and I will naturally be optimistic in June."
However, judging from the liquidation volume, short positions are only liquidated at "around 50 million", which is far from enough. At least we should see short orders explode into the 100 million level before the "increase driven by contracts" becomes more obvious.
Otherwise, judging from the current volume, it is still mostly "spot buying and promotion"
🐮Sentiment Analysis
But from the long-short ratio, we can see that "even if the pie rises like this, the tariff will still be negative."
The main force has been cultivating an inertia before, "when it rises, it will sell down, and it will sell down soon after it rises, and it will continue to trade." This also makes "chasing short" behavior occur every time when the rise starts to weaken.
But this is also a good thing. More people are shorting means that the sentiment is not overheated, and the higher the price goes up, the more people will be chasing after it. You can use the "hourly level long-short ratio" to judge the current long-short risk-reward ratio, and then Determine whether to band
However, the operation is extremely difficult. It is not recommended for novices to operate like this. It is better to maintain a fixed direction of long or short.
😎Follow today
1. The long-short ratio on the hourly line is "obviously too strong on the long side", so there is a high probability of downward adjustment in the next 3-4 hours.
2. Spot ETFs mainly had net inflows yesterday. We are paying attention to the fact that US stocks have been rising for a long time. If there is a correction, whether the currency circle will be used as a "risk asset" or a "safe haven asset"
3. Pay attention to currencies: SOL, JTO, PYTH, ENA, ALT, MAGIC
