Economic data will be released tonight. Let's review the data release.
The US JOLTs job vacancies in April (10,000 people) were announced at 805.9, which is in line with my expectations of a cooling job market.
The US factory orders monthly rate in April was announced at 0.7%, which is in line with my expectations.
(I'll just pretend to be 13)
As mentioned in the previous article, the US factory orders data in April are bearish, but in the long run, the reduction in orders is a positive. However, there is still a threat of stagflation, which we won't discuss here.
Let's focus on the job vacancy data in April. Although it is data from April, based on the changes in the data, we can make an expected analysis of a series of data in May.
Let's talk about the job vacancy data in April first. The data comes from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The labor market remained relatively stable in April, and it weakened compared with the same period last year, but the overall situation is still at a high level. From the data, the employment data is slightly weakened.
Job vacancies: Job vacancies in health care and social assistance, as well as local government and education sectors, have declined. There may be many factors that contribute to the decline in job openings, but job reductions can also lead to short-term tight supply and demand for employment, and even increase service fees. In the PCE data for April, we saw data pressure from the service industry.
Recruitment: In April, the number of people hired in the durable goods manufacturing industry increased, while that in the arts, entertainment, leisure and federal government decreased.
Resignation: In April, the total number of resignations remained roughly the same, totaling 5.4 million, of which 3.5 million were voluntary resignations and 1.5 million were involuntary resignations (dismissals, layoffs). Among them, the number of people who resigned in the durable goods manufacturing industry and government education was relatively large, while the number of people who resigned in professional and business services decreased.
From the above data, it can be seen that job vacancies in the service industry and government departments have decreased, recruitment has decreased, and resignations have decreased relatively (government department resignations have increased), indicating that the service industry is still a relatively stable industry in the United States, and more people are willing to work in the service industry steadily. However, the reduction in jobs and recruitment also proves that the current economic outlook in the United States is not particularly optimistic. At the same time, the relatively strong labor market has reduced the difficulty of recruitment, resulting in a relative slowdown in recruitment in the service industry, which will also indirectly push up the cost of the service industry and related expenses.
However, the overall reduction in job vacancies also proves that the labor market is gradually slowing down, which will help curb inflation and boost tomorrow's small non-farm data and Friday's unemployment rate and large non-farm data. Now, stimulated by the data, the US stock market has maintained a small decline, but the crypto market Bitcoin sentiment has broken through 70,000. If tomorrow's small non-farm data further consolidates the expectation of a recession in employment data, then this week's expectations for optimistic interest rate cuts this year will be further pushed up, which will also affect the rise of risk markets.
#BTC走势分析 #美国6月经济数据
