Interpretation of macro data on June 28: US May core PCE price index annual rate/monthly rate, personal expenditure monthly rate

The US May core PCE price index annual rate

The data recorded 2.6% in line with expectations, lower than the previous value. Although the core PCE has decreased, it is still within the Fed's expectations. As I interpreted at noon, if it meets the Fed's expectations, there is a reason for the Fed to continue to maintain a high interest rate. Of course, we still have to wait for the interpretation of foreign media to set off market expectations.

Brought market volatility small fluctuations + sideways.

The US May core PCE price index monthly rate

The data recorded 0.1%, in line with expectations. The core PCE continued to decline year-on-year last month, in line with the Fed's expectations of 0.1%. Short-term inflationary pressure continued to slow down, but because Powell emphasized in this month's interest rate meeting that the effective reduction of core PCE is also in line with the Fed's expectations, it is still not a reason for a rate cut. The subtext is that the expected reduction in inflation is not a reason for a rate cut.

The monthly rate of personal spending in the United States in May was 0.2%, lower than expected. The same as the previous value, personal spending was lower than expected. The cooling of the consumer market means that economic activities are also cooling down. Although it is good for inflation control, the first impact is on the US dollar and US stocks. The good or bad economy directly affects the US stock market and the US dollar index.