Views on short-term macro news:

After the first wave of ETF inflows cooled and retested all-time highs for the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range for three months. At the same time, stablecoin supply continues to increase and is currently around $160 billion, indicating that capital is flowing into the asset class broadly.

ETF flows are starting to pick up again and are close to new highs. On the macro side, the most important short-term macro catalyst is the upcoming Fed meeting next Wednesday (June 12). Two important macro data points will drive short-term market sentiment and the Fed's decision next Wednesday: CPI on June 12 and the upcoming employment report on Friday, June 7. Ideally, the market would like to see a cold CPI report and a weak employment report to convince the Fed that it will cut interest rates. This will provide cover for Powell to cut interest rates in July, and the market currently only puts the probability of a rate cut at 12%.

To summarize the short-term market view, as BTC consolidates below $70,000, momentum indicators have mostly reset, derivatives data still does not seem overly frothy, and we continue to see capital inflows through stabilization and ETFs begin to show signs of recovery again. The market is currently waiting for positives on the macro front, which will come through Friday's jobs report, CPI, and next week's FOMC meeting. If we get data from weak data + a dovish stance from Powell, the crypto market should rise quickly.