In the prediction markets this week:

Trump has been convicted, but bettors at Polymarket have faith that he will escape prison and return to the White House.

According to Kalshi traders, there is no interest rate cut this year.

Donald J. Trump is the first US president to be convicted in court. But this dubious distinction did not affect his chances of recapturing the White House.

At crypto-based Polymarket, the election contract is approaching $150 million in total bets, with Trump's guilty verdict not moving prices much.

Legal experts have said Trump is unlikely to receive prison time for his crime, and the market agrees.

When asked at a convention at Polymarket whether Trump would go to jail, most punters were pretty sure he wouldn't see the inside of a cell.

When is the interest rate cut?

Kalshi and Polymarket traders are not pricing in a rate cut, which contrasts sharply with the CME FedWatch survey, which predicts a cut by the fall and is certain of another by the winter.

Economists are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2024.

Factors such as high inflation, a resilient economy, and a labor market that has softened somewhat but remains strong suggest that easing monetary policy may not be necessary. However, the persistence of these conditions throughout the year adds an element of doubt.

CME's FedWatch, a survey of market participants, paints a different picture.

It targets a 54% probability that the first interest rate cut will occur by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September, and confidence is increasing that a second - or even third - cut will occur by December.

This divergence will be something to watch to see if market participants on CME's FedWatch have more information than market watchers on the prediction markets.

My dear followers, what do you think? I'm waiting for your comments! 😄👇🚀📈💰