June Outlook is here.
In the monthly content, after adding enough, I want to try the effect of subtraction this time. I will only talk about my thoughts on future market trends and some time nodes (catalysts) of specific events.
It seems that only memecoin gamblers can make money in this cycle. WIF is a little better. The price fluctuation of PEPE is actually quite large, and few people really eat the whole process. There are also excellent performances of fundamental coins, but they are relatively few, just a few, such as PENDLE. If you want to select the hot words of the year, PVP will definitely be one of them.
How to do it?
Here are some of my personal thoughts:
Are fundamentals important? I think it is very important.
I think the current fundamentals should refer to the ability to "attract market attention". The current fundamentals are closely related to indicators such as project data, chips, community stickiness, marketing/KOL speech and narrative/catalyst, and whether they can meet the core needs of the market. You need to look at a target more comprehensively.
For example, PENDLE. I personally think that Pendle's indicators in these aspects are great. In terms of the correlation between fundamentals and narratives, the initial rise was because Pendle catered to the LSD narrative. This year, Pendle was deeply involved in the LRT narrative, pushing prices to continue to rise. This coordination with the narrative keeps Pendle at the forefront of market attention.
It is important to recognize which layer of information transmission you are in.
Learn to observe market sentiment. The specific method is to go deep into the community, observe the speeches of community members/community KOLs, and go to Twitter to see the speeches of smart money at the high/low points of market sentiment.
You can establish an information flow that belongs to you and observe the market sentiment at key time nodes.
Looking back at the market sentiment in early May, is it that flavor?
Next, let's talk about the relevant targets that I am more optimistic about:
1. ETH ETF
ETH ETF is great, no need to say more. In addition to leverage, the best Beta of ETH is those with ETH in the name, such as ETHFI and ENS. Although I have a position in LDO, and its fundamentals and liquidity are good, I will not recommend it considering its performance some time ago.
Of course, the same is true for Pendle. However, I have talked about Pendle many times this year, so I will not go into details here.
For memes, in addition to PEPE, you can look at MOG, which is a meme that is more popular overseas.
For ETH DeFi, I will consider MKR. The future catalyst of MKR is: split + SubDAO.
As for Beta, you can wait until ETH really starts to rise before chasing it.
Let's talk more about Layer2.
1. BaseChain
I have ambushed DEGEN on Base. As for whether it can make money, it will take time to verify. For projects that can bring cash flow to the project party in the long term, we should always pay attention.
Pay more attention to opportunities on the Base chain, such as the game section on it (for example, Aavegotchi). Aavegotchi's Layer3 built on Base will launch the mainnet in Q2 this year. It may be this month.
2. Arb
The Arbitrum community's "200 million ARB game catalyst plan" proposal vote should be passed.
MAGIC also has an expectation for Layer3 in the future. On April 22, TreasureDAO has launched the Layer3 testnet, and is expected to launch the mainnet in Q3 this year, which supports staking.
2. AI
The AI sector only talks about two targets with confirmed date catalysts:
FET
The merger will occur on June 11/June 13, and will be renamed ASI afterwards.
AR
AO related information will be released on June 13, and participants can mine AO through AR.
I personally prefer AR.
There are many other AI sector coins, so I won’t repeat them one by one. The market sentiment of the AI sector will change according to changes in the external environment.
3. Political Meme
I only participated in MAGA in the political meme on the chain. I bought it at 35 yesterday and plan to hold it again.
The political meme on CEX is PEOPLE, and I will set a market value target of 1 billion US dollars for PEOPLE.
For such tokens with large price fluctuations, my outlook article will have some lag. Therefore, after seeing Trump speak out to compete for Crypto voters, or the unexpected passage of ETH ETF, we should realize that politics will become the mainstream narrative of the market. Enter earlier.
4. Can Solana break through new highs?
My initial thought was that SOL might be affected by the strength of ETH (bloodsucking).
Now I have changed my mind: Solana is a memecoin casino, and the current market has a rigid demand for memecoin Dubo.
Therefore, I think SOL will not be sucked too much blood during this period - the current population of ETH and SOL has been divided, and people who play $SOL will not easily migrate to ETH.On the contrary, the rise of ETH will raise market expectations and push market sentiment to a high point, and Solana will be the beneficiary.
5. Others
1. Selfchain Mainnet
I was hurt by this target (FRONT) last year, so I won't watch it.
2. Fantom Sonic
At present, the launch of the Sonic mainnet by Fantom is a Sell News for $FTM speculators. Always pay attention to the subsequent actions of AC. The chain is out, and we have to do something on it (my expectation).
3. Uniswap
It has been postponed. The reason may be that a certain VC is putting pressure on Uniswap. I will keep a certain attention to this matter (as a melon), but $UNI is unlikely to participate in the speculation.
4. June is also a big month for airdrops, so you need to pay attention to the risks.
