#BTC看涨
$6.5 billion in options expire in May, with bullish Bitcoin options dominating
Bitcoin bulls have a strong incentive to push BTC prices above $70,000 on May 31, but the clock is ticking.
Bitcoin investors are generally bullish, and despite multiple failed attempts to keep the price above $71,000, derivatives betting on $80,000 and $90,000 continue to surge. This behavior is driven by expectations of high-volatility events, such as geopolitical tensions, sociopolitical changes, U.S. presidential support, and increased corporate adoption of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin bulls are too optimistic, betting on $72,000 or higher
The $6.5 billion in Bitcoin options expiring on May 31 are no exception. However, given that bulls have failed to break through the $70,000 resistance level over the past week, these overly optimistic call (buy) options are likely to become worthless. For example, 91% of these instruments are priced at $72,000 or higher, which means that bulls are counting on a sustained rise before May 31. As the deadline approaches, Bitcoin shorts seem more likely to avoid major losses.
Contrary to what many Bitcoin-only investors believe, Bitcoin's price is heavily influenced by external factors, such as monetary policy, economic and inflation trends, unemployment rates, and confidence in the government's ability to successfully issue bonds. Regardless of Bitcoin's temporary correlation with the stock market and gold, investors often hold cash positions and short-term U.S. Treasuries when market panic prevails.
On May 28, the Nasdaq Composite Index surpassed its all-time high of 17,000 points, indicating that investors have more confidence in the Fed’s soft landing plan, which aims to return inflation to its 2% target while corporate earnings in most sectors remain healthy. This situation brings a positive outlook for risk assets, including Bitcoin, as interest rates are expected to fall.
Overly bullish bets on Bitcoin monthly options expiring at 8:00 a.m. UTC on May 31 reflect a 25% gain in BTC as it surged from $56,883 to $71,417 in the first 20 days of May. However, the rally was not sustained, especially after the U.S. approved a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF), creating competition for institutional investors’ money.
Comprehensive data predicts that if BTC trades above $70,000, bulls will make $270 million in profits
To interpret the odds for each BTC expiration price level, open interest for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments must be analyzed.
While call options dominate with 70% higher notional value, Deribit’s $4.62 billion in open interest is likely to be much lower, as 99% of those instruments would be considered worthless if BTC trades below $70,000 on May 31. Similarly, put option investors would be disappointed if Bitcoin remains around $67,800 at the monthly expiration, as only 5% of those $1.7 billion contracts are traded at $68,000 or higher.
Deribit is the absolute leader in the options market, accounting for 71% of the market share of Bitcoin monthly open interest in May. However, it is worth analyzing the overall data because the investor profile varies across exchanges. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the second largest participant in BTC options expiration in May, with a total open interest of $745 million, followed by the OKX exchange with a total open interest of $600 million. Binance has a total open interest of $315 million, and Bybit has a total open interest of $160 million.
If Bitcoin remains around $67,800 on May 31, the total open interest for call options will be $135 million, while at $68,000, the open interest for put options is $145 million. In essence, such levels are quite balanced, but both longs and shorts have an incentive to influence the price before expiration. For example, a price of $65,900 would bring $95 million in gains to put options, while an expiration price of $70,000 or higher would bring $270 million in gains to call options.
With less than three days to the monthly expiration date, it would be surprising if bulls could push Bitcoin prices above $70,000 given the lack of short-term catalysts. Therefore, a neutral outcome with Bitcoin prices around $68,000 is more likely.
