Let the data speak: The rise is not accompanied by a large increase in trading volume, pay attention to "false breakthroughs"
The main purpose of our focus on data today, as mentioned above, is to see how the trading volume is during the rise of the entire market. If it is accompanied by an incremental rise, then the bullish sentiment is gradually erupting, and the shorts are consumed during the rise, thereby consolidating the price increase and reducing the risk of a fall. However, if the rise is accompanied by a small increment, then it is a single bullish rise, and too many shorts have not been digested, so we must pay attention to whether the selling volume stimulated by the key resistance level will lead to the next short-term correction.
However, the data we compare today is compared with last Friday, and last Friday, due to short-term fluctuations, a large amount of trading volume increased, so today's data we only record, especially the trading volume, if tomorrow continues to rise, then we can refer to today's trading volume data to determine whether it is a short-term incremental rise or a shrinking volume.
However, from the data, compared with last Friday's fluctuations, the current unilateral rise, the market value has increased, and the proportion of Bitcoin has been absorbed by Ethereum, and the trading volume, whether it is Bitcoin, Ethereum or cottage, has dropped by more than 50% compared with last Friday.
In terms of funds, USDT fund retention decreased by 128 million, and USDC retention decreased by 300 million. Combined with the current rising market and the increase in funds retained in the market, the decrease in the market value of stablecoins can be considered as participating in transactions, which led to a decrease.
Observing the fund flow chart, both Asia, Europe and the United States have seen a short-term increase in funds during the day, and then funds quickly joined the transaction. Although the US stock market opened today, the fund sentiment is still good.
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Although the US stock market is closed tonight and the macro sentiment has not had a positive driving effect, it is now the turn of Bitcoin after Ethereum completed a technical breakthrough at the weekend. Since it has risen, we should pay more attention to the situation of resistance level.
Bitcoin: 2 resistance, 1 key, 1 support.
Bitcoin has begun to break upward after the 1-hour and 4-hour Bollinger bands have contracted. In the short term, pay attention to the 72,400 daily line resistance level. After breaking through this position, look at the previous high of 73,777 in the past 23 years.
Pay attention to the key position of the 68,800 monthly line support when falling back, and the optimistic support level of the daily line is around 66,000.
Why 68,800 is a key position, because Bitcoin in its current state is a technical breakthrough, and after the breakthrough, it does not bring much trading volume support, so we must pay attention to the risk of falling back, and this position of the monthly line happens to be a very important short-term support level.
The RSI index rose to around 66, and in the short term, pay attention to the overbought correction sentiment after reaching 70.
Ethereum: Pay attention to 2 resistances and 2 supports under stability.
Although Ethereum has performed poorly after ETF and has not risen much, it has not fallen much either. The liquidity is low but the price is extremely solid. At present, it is frequently rising steadily and preparing to test the integer resistance level of 4000, which needs special attention. Generally, the integer level may stimulate a certain amount of buying and selling volume. Attention should be paid to the stimulation of selling volume when it rises.
If it breaks through the integer level and stabilizes, then the daily historical high of 4093.32 from 23 years to now needs to be tested.
For a short-term decline, pay attention to the daily support of 3800 and the monthly support of 3600.
The RSI index has completely broken through 70 and reached a high of 88. The sentiment has been in a high state. Pay attention to the risk of reversal of short-term sentiment.
Although the current Bitcoin and Ethereum market looks optimistic, we still need to pay attention to the market data, especially the trading volume. We need to pay attention to whether there is a good increase in the rise. If the increase is small, it means that the possibility of a single technical breakthrough, that is, a false breakthrough, increases. After the false breakthrough, it is generally accompanied by a technical shock callback, and it is difficult for a technical breakthrough to break through the key resistance level.
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