ETH surged 20% overnight, "winter is over"?
CoinGecko data shows that Ethereum has risen 19.4% in the past 24 hours to $3,685, the highest price since April 9.
Although there is no clear reason for this sudden increase, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcinas and other industry pundits speculate that it may be due to Congress's "turn" on the issue of cryptocurrency.
Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of asset management company Apollo Crypto, told Cointelegraph: "Approval suddenly became possible. SAB-121 triggered a turning point in Washington, and members of both parties voted to block the bill." He added that Americans who own cryptocurrencies may be "an important voter group in this election year."
Also affected is the approval of Ethereum ETFs. After the US SEC postponed the Ethereum ETF decision several times, May 23-30, 2024 is expected to be the final deadline for multiple spot Ethereum ETFs to wait for US SEC approval.
If the US SEC does not approve the spot Ethereum ETF this time, the next time will be June 23, a month later. And VanEck, ARK, and Hashdex will need to resubmit applications for spot Ethereum ETFs. However, a big reversal occurred on May 20, 2024.
According to CoinDesk, people familiar with the matter revealed that the US SEC asked stock exchanges to update the 19b-4 filing documents for Ethereum spot ETFs on Monday. The 19b-4 filing document is a form used to inform the SEC of rule changes that allow funds to be traded on exchanges.
This suggests that they may approve these applications before the critical deadline of Thursday, May 23, but this does not mean that the ETF will be approved. Before being approved, potential issuers also need to obtain S-1 application approval before the product begins trading. A person familiar with the matter said that the SEC may take an indefinite time to approve the S-1 document because it has no deadline.
At the same time, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that the probability of approval of the spot Ethereum ETF has increased from the original 25% to 75%. This afternoon, I heard someone talking about it. Under the influence of pressure from all parties, the SEC may make a 180-degree turn on this. Balchunas said the growing politicization of cryptocurrency is the driving factor behind this sudden shift.
According to a person familiar with the matter, a company that is in talks with the SEC said that a few weeks ago the SEC thought it was dragging its feet, but now feels that it may be on the right track to get approval.
Affected by this news, the price of Ethereum woke up overnight after a long period of depression, and once soared to above $3,700, with a 24-hour increase of more than 20%.
The same is true for the ETH/BTC exchange rate. A few days ago, ETH/BTC once fell below 0.045, which made the community question ETH's performance in this round of bull market.
Stimulated by the surge in Ethereum, Ethereum ecosystem-related tokens also generally surged. The crypto community that was still paying attention to the narrative of low circulation/high FDV VC tokens yesterday, no one cares anymore.
Before the rumor that the US SEC had changed its attitude towards the spot Ethereum ETF by 180 degrees, some analysts said that the possibility of the spot Ethereum ETF being approved by the US SEC was underestimated.
Coinbase institutional research analyst David Han said in a report on May 15 that the probability of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF by the end of May is between 30% and 40%. Although the market generally believes that the US authorities will not release it in the short term, the possibility of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved is still underestimated.
Crypto institutions have also expressed their views on the change in the US SEC's attitude towards the spot Ethereum ETF. Alex Thorn, research director of Galaxy Research, said that more and more people expect the US Securities and Exchange Commission to approve Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) soon, but if the US Securities and Exchange Commission's attitude towards Ethereum ETFs really changes 180 degrees, it will be a matter of concern. They may find a balance between ETH itself is not a security and staking ETH is a security.
"Because if the speculation about the US SEC's 180-degree turn on the Ethereum ETF is true, then I guess they are trying to find a balance between recognizing that ETH itself is not a security and "staking ETH is considered a security." ”
“That is, based on their various investigative reports, the SEC may be allowed to approve Ethereum ETFs while maintaining their previously stated/argued opinions.”
After all, the SEC has been trying to classify Ethereum as a security in the past, and this pattern continues today, as evidenced by a recent report by Fox Business producer Eleanor Terret.
Terret cited a court filing by Consensys on April 29, saying that the SEC and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler have believed that Ethereum is an unregistered security "for at least a year."
Variant Fund Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky wrote that if the spot Ethereum ETF is approved, everyone I know in Washington who is close to this process will be shocked. This means that after the SAB 121 vote, approval may mark a major shift in US cryptocurrency policy, perhaps more important than the ETF itself.
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