With the inflow of Bitcoin ETFs, will BTC break 70,000?

This round of rebound, under the condition of a lot of negative news, suddenly started from more than 60,000, and the rebound force was extremely rapid, and many copycats broke the previous high again.

I believe that many people will wait for the position below 60,000 or even lower under the influence of negative news FUD and many external news media.

As a result, they missed the opportunity again.

I believe that if we want to count the position data again, the position of retail investors is likely to be smaller than last time.

Continuous adjustments, pull-ups, and declines are the best way to wash the market. Retail investors will slowly lose patience after such torture.

They will sell at two positions: the plunge when the negative news comes, and the sale of grabbing the life-saving straw after the sudden rebound.

As mentioned in the previous article, I think the recent layout should be completed before May 15, and we should not pursue the extreme below 60,000.

Then this initial rebound, many people asked me a few days ago, should I sell?

I am afraid of rising and falling, it is too difficult.

In essence, many people were scared by the previous trend of rising and then falling, but in fact, the market in May is much better than that in April. The real bottom is April 13 and 14.

Let’s not talk about whether to sell or not. Let’s talk about who formed the habit of retail investors and the interesting part of K-line.

It’s back to the habitual problem of falling and rising mentioned before.

In the early stage of the market, the dog dealer will use the rise and fall of K-line to let retail investors gradually get used to a fixed trend. After forming a solidified mindset, retail investors will operate according to the trend. Then when retail investors get used to it, they suddenly change the trend line and go up or down.

This can cut leeks.

The following is the daily line of the big cake. The last time it fell below 57,000, it actually changed the trend line and took the downward trend line. According to technical analysis, the second decline after the rebound should be lower than 56,000, but this is only limited to the market really starting to go bearish.

Did it really go bearish? At that time, it was believed that it did not.

Therefore, the second decline suddenly changed the trend, and the price rose slightly after falling above 60,000, which became a real trap for short selling. However, it was just such a needle, combined with the negative news, that scared many people.

K-line is deceptive, so Wang Ge often doesn't like to talk about K-line technology. He doesn't like to read some technical analysis of the so-called "fall below a certain position, and soar above a certain position", which feels a bit like taking off pants to fart.

Often judging the future market based on the K-line that has already been out, you have already missed the opportunity and may be manipulated by the dog dealer.

This kind of technical analysis is only suitable for the early stage of a real bull market and the early stage of a bear market. The analysis of the general trend is generally correct, but there will be many false breakthroughs and false inducements for the mid-term trend.

After listening to this, come back to my prediction this time, is it logical?

On May 15, when the entire market was shrouded in the "four major negatives" of fear and was frightened by the PPI data, it was more logical for the big cake not to fall below 60,000 and then rebound, not to give the opportunity to buy the bottom, and to burst the short at the same time. More importantly, although the Federal Reserve released hawkishness in advance this time, the hidden data from all aspects showed (especially the fact that the inflation rate of the old American real estate has eased) that the CPI data will reverse and improve.

Considering many aspects, this judgment was made.

Many people also say that Wang Ge's judgment on the big market is luck and guesswork, but looking at his judgment on the big market every time in the past two years, can anyone do it?

Most of what I have seen is based on sentiment analysis of the market, or based on the market that has already risen and fallen, continue to analyze the trend.

Almost few people can judge the turning point in advance, especially don't "blur the concept" and firmly analyze in one direction.

If there is such a person, and the accuracy rate is relatively high, please introduce him to me, I want to be friends with him.

"It's either up or down. If it rises above a certain trend, it's bullish, and if it falls below a certain trend, it's bearish."

I can do such analysis, but I really don't have much level.

I often share my thinking, in fact, the purpose is to let everyone learn ideas from my review, which is a skill.

If you really learn it, you will take fewer detours, lose less money, and gain more.

This is what retail investors really lack, as precious as gold, but most retail investors ignore or neglect it.

So, back to the topic of this article, I bought the bottom before 515, should I sell it this time?

First of all, the previous few days of selling must have been too early, so everyone waited for the previous few days. This is what I said above, the dog dealer suddenly changed the trend and broke the habit of pulling up.

Now the rise is fierce, and there is no problem in selling later.

Although I don’t believe in K-line technology, I have to look at it from the K-line. From the last drop below 57,000, the trend on the daily line has turned upward.

From the sudden inflow of ETFs, some large companies disclosed the purchase of BTC and the news of interest rate cuts, the big cake has the possibility of continuing to break through.

From the perspective of contract positions, the long army has taken the lead, and the dominant time turning point is the day before yesterday. According to common sense, once the turning point occurs, coupled with the two previous inducements to short, this time it may be persistent, and even break 70,000. But at the same time, it is also accumulating the habit of the long army. At present, the accumulated long positions of contracts have accumulated a liquidation price of 60,000 up to about 5 billion US dollars. So a callback may occur, but it must be accompanied by specific negative events.

But I personally prefer to break through 70,000 and then pull back. If it breaks, it will be a bit like the previous line drawing, but it will take a while.

In summary, in the long term, before September, there is a high probability of a monthly level rise. In the short term, there is still time for a pullback event.

Once it rises for a period of time, there will be this contradiction, but according to the long and short lines, you will definitely find your own trading method. #BTC走势分析