Is the market a false breakthrough or a real inducement to buy more? Here’s your answer
Yesterday, BTC once rebounded to $63,000. What was the reason for the BTC plunge last night? Will it continue to fall? Yesterday morning, it fell first because of the panic over the release of this week’s CPI data. When the price fell to the right level, the cost was right, and there was capital betting that the CPI data might be good, so people bought the bottom, causing the BTC price to rebound. Although there was capital buying the bottom last night, the on-chain data showed that it was bearish, and the situation did not improve.
On-chain data showed that
(1) There was no increase in the number of stablecoins in the exchange, and the amount of stablecoins flowing into the exchange did not increase significantly. The desire of large funds to buy the bottom was not strong, which was bearish.
(2) More BTC flowed into the exchange.
When more BTC is transported to the exchange, it is likely to be sold, which is bearish. The current panic sentiment is mainly due to the three major events this week!
1. Powell’s speech at 10pm tonight
2. CPI, the key inflation data of the United States, will be released at 8:30pm tomorrow
3. A new stage of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks
The key is to look at the CPI data to determine the bull and bear market. Whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year depends on it. If it is higher than expected, BTC will break $60,000, and if it is lower than expected, it will start a deep V reversal. The opportunity is fleeting, so you should be one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Strategy recommendation
The current strategy is the same as what I have repeatedly emphasized to you in the past few days:
(1) Do not short positions to avoid missing out, and the recommended position is 40%
(2) Do not chase high prices during rebounds, otherwise you will be trapped
(3) Reduce or increase positions as soon as the CPI data is released
The wash-out period after the halving is a difficult vacuum period. Not every investor in the market looks at the CPI data, especially in emerging markets such as the cryptocurrency circle where investors are relatively immature. Therefore, we can make good use of the information gap of macroeconomic information and follow the trend to make profits
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