The CPI data to be released on Wednesday this week is particularly important. The market expects the overall CPI to be 3.4%... the previous value was 3.5%... the core CPI is expected to be 3.6%... the previous value was 3.8... Whether the market will pick up depends on this set of CPI data. Brother Ming believes that it is likely to meet expectations. At present, traders expect the probability of a rate cut in July to be 36%, and the probability of a rate cut in September to be 90%. Once the CPI falls, it will consolidate the Fed's expectations of a rate cut, or even a rate cut in July, then the market recovery is foreseeable, because that will trade the expectation of a rate cut.

In other aspects, Powell will appear on Tuesday. Before the CPI is released, let's see if his attitude has changed. In the interest rate meeting that just ended, Powell denied the risk of stagflation and excluded interest rate hikes from the options. He is a neutral dove. In addition, the European Central Bank will also release CPI data on Friday this week. It has been leaking that interest rates will be cut in June. If inflation falls this time, the probability of a rate cut in June will increase further.

In terms of market conditions, continue to wait patiently. After the CPI data is released this week, the market will most likely have a direction. As I have always emphasized, it is impossible to judge in the short term. In the long term, there is no need to judge. The bull market will continue (the Fed will definitely cut interest rates), and loose monetary policy will support the continuation of the bull market.