Only the dealer can easily make a lot of money in the secondary market. It is impossible for retail investors to defeat the dealer. From any dimension, the dealer has a crushing advantage. If retail investors make money, it is not that they have defeated the dealer. They just drink a mouthful of soup while the dealer eats meat. Despite this, only a small number of retail investors can make money each time, because the dealer will not allow most retail investors to make money. What the dealer wants to harvest is "most retail investors."
Compared with the various regulations and policies of the stock market, it is easy to be a banker in the cryptocurrency circle. Only by understanding the principle of banker manipulation can retail investors make money. In addition to having trading skills and funds to control the market, you must first have chips, which is a prerequisite.
There are two situations:
If you are the issuer, then naturally most of the chips are in your hands, and you are the banker and play the game yourself. This kind of situation is basically a long-term game, which involves raising the price, distributing, smashing the market, and absorbing chips over and over again. There may be traces of your trading techniques, after all, it is the same group of people controlling the market.
The skilled "big speculators" look for the target in the market, collect chips and play short-term dealers, and enter and exit quickly. This situation is a little more complicated. After they find the right target, they need to collect enough chips in a short period of time, and then complete the pull-up distribution. The method is generally more aggressive.
But in the cryptocurrency market, the first situation is the most common, and the probability of the second situation is much lower than in the stock market. The reason is that the cryptocurrency market is not subject to many restrictions such as policy and regulatory supervision and lock-up periods. Generally, hot money does not dare to run wild on other people's territory. After all, the issuers of the cryptocurrency market may have no bottom line. If you dare to grab the shares, I dare to smash them all.
No matter which case, absorbing chips is the first step of the banker. When the chips are collected and there are not many chips from retail investors outside and the selling pressure is not great, the conditions for pulling up are met. Only by pulling up this path can it be possible to realize the distribution after pulling up to realize the profit.
So how to increase it?
If you plan to raise the price from 10 yuan to 11 yuan, you can just buy in directly. All the orders from 10 to 11 will be taken up, and the price will be raised by 10 points. If there are not many orders above, you can even create the illusion of "large-scale increase". You only need to place some sell orders in advance and then trade them against each other.
Therefore, trading volume is not important, especially in the cryptocurrency market, which can be achieved through techniques. If you are afraid that your arbitrage orders are too large and give retail investors a bad impression that the stock price may not rise due to excessive selling pressure, you can hide them by placing iceberg orders.
Distribution is not difficult
After the price rises from 0 yuan to 20 yuan, if the K-line pattern is better, some retail investors who naturally chase the rise may come in. More often, the off-site partners arrange retail investors to take over. In this case, just place a sell order in the target area for them to buy. Then, according to the buying power of retail investors, large orders are placed to smash the market. 90% of the chip transfers occur at this stage.
The most difficult thing is to absorb funds
The current price is 10 yuan, and you plan to buy 100 million U. If you can buy all of them, the price is still 10 yuan or even lower. If you buy directly, the price may be dozens of yuan by the time you finish buying, and there will be a lot of retail investors who follow up at low prices.
It takes superb control skills to absorb funds. You can influence the minds of retail investors by controlling the ups and downs of the market, so that they will obediently hand over their chips. If the work of absorbing funds is done well, most of the high-priced chips will be transferred to the hands of the dealer at a low price, so that there will be no great resistance when the stock price rises in the future, and the success rate will be guaranteed.
For the banker, especially the long-term banker, the high and low points of the price are not important, after all, they are in absolute control of the market and play a cyclical game. Just like how high the price is raised is meaningless to them, if they want to raise it, it is easy to raise it 10,000 times. The key point is how much funds can come in after the price is raised.
If you want to absorb more chips, you need to let retail investors sell their chips.
There are only three types of market trends: up, down, and sideways. There are also only three types of fund-raising techniques: up, down, and sideways.
The market crash caused some retail investors who were afraid of further losses to lose all hope and sell at a loss reluctantly;
The sideways trend makes some retail investors who think opportunity cost is very important lose patience and sell their stocks to exchange coins;
The rise in prices made some retail investors, who felt that this was a rare opportunity to escape, hope for a lucky break and sell their shares at a loss.
The real stage of accumulating funds is the combination of these three methods. If one round of combination punches doesn’t work, there will be a second and third round. For most retail investors, this is hell. After the dealer cashes out at the top, many chips bought at high positions will admit their losses and exit the market in the middle of the market crash. Once the decline is too large, many retail investors will choose to hold on and lie flat. At this time, there will be a small rebound to let those "weak-willed" retail investors leave the market, and then continue to plummet and rebound. Finally, those who remain unmoved regardless of whether it rises or falls are those who are determined to live and die with the dealer and lie flat and pretend to be dead. Therefore, they use sideways trading to consume their patience, and then sandwich small rebounds and large plunges in the middle to try to tease their emotions.
Why are there long bottom tortures before many big market trends? The reason is here. It takes a lot of time to deal with the last group of stubborn people who force them to hand over their chips. The cleaner the chips are, the smoother and safer the subsequent pull-up and distribution stages will be, the less resistance will be, and the higher the success rate will be. This is the stage that tests the dealer's ability to operate the market the most.
The best trader must be a master at managing retail investors’ mentality.
They know which market is most conducive to retail investors cutting their losses, whether it is rising, falling or sideways. Generally speaking, among the retail investors who are eliminated by the combination punch, the "fall" has the best effect, which can eliminate 60% of the retail investors, the "rise" can eliminate 30%, and the "sideways" can eliminate 10%. In the end, there will always be a small number of psoriasis, which will not move no matter what they do. There is nothing we can do. This risk can never be eliminated 100%, and we can only allow it to exist.
Sometimes accidents happen during the accumulation phase
During the stage of accumulating chips, the banker may consider further cutting the price to clean up the market due to too many floating chips, but generally the cutting range will not exceed 20%. If the cutting is too deep, the risk for the banker will increase dramatically. It is very simple. The average cost of the chips collected by the banker is 10 yuan. If the price drops to 8 yuan, the banker must be in a floating loss state. This loss is not to be feared, after all, the market is under his control and the price can be pulled back at any time. The purpose of cutting is to make retail investors who were unwilling to cut their losses before continue to panic and cut their losses.
However, if at this time, not only the effect of retail investors fleeing is not ideal, but large funds are buying in, it will be very embarrassing. Their cost will be much lower than that of the banker. It is absolutely impossible to pull up the market next time, otherwise someone will take a big bite of meat. They dare not kill because they don’t know the details of the large funds. They are afraid that the more they kill, the more they buy, which will make them more passive. They can only use sideways trading, small pull-ups and small kills to make the bottom-picking funds lose patience and squeeze them out. Once this situation occurs, the banker’s trading space will be greatly compressed.
Of course, even if the price does not fall to 20% below the dealer's cost line, there is still the possibility of being bottom-fished by big funds. However, if the price is near or above the cost line, the dealer's operating space will be much larger and will not be so passive.
Of course, even if the price does not drop to 20% below the dealer's cost line, there is still the possibility of being bought at the bottom by big funds. However, if it is near or above the cost line, the dealer's trading space will be much larger and will not be so passive.
Ideally, after completing most of the accumulation, you will quickly pull away from the cost area, for example, play tricks about 20% above the cost area to prepare for the start of a big market, so that there is more room for trading.
In the stage of absorbing chips, the dealer must purchase a large number of retail investors' chips in a relatively low position and in the shortest possible time, so the trading volume must not be small. If the dealer does not enter the market to collect chips, and only relies on the disorderly transactions of retail investors in the market, then the daily trading volume will be in a state of shrinking volume on most trading days. Many currencies have been in a state of shrinking sideways or falling for a long time, or follow the volume and price fluctuations of Bitcoin. Once the dealer starts to participate, the situation will immediately become different. For example, 5 traders received an order that each of them must enter 1 million U today. You have to buy chips in the market with real guns and real bullets for these millions of U. Once they are put into the market, it doesn't matter whether the price will fluctuate as a result. Then today's trading volume will immediately increase by 5 million U. Can this be faked? No. Of course, if the dealer only collects 10,000 U every day and uses a few years to absorb chips, the trading volume is indeed impossible to track. But I guess few dealers have this patience, and no dealer will do this, because it is meaningless to do so.
Therefore, if a certain product is found to be at a relatively low level for a long period of time, and the trading volume is increasing in an orderly manner, then it is very likely that the banker is accumulating funds. I will talk about this "relatively low level" later.
For example, when many people are watching the market, they may accidentally find that there are often consecutive orders of the same quantity in a certain product and a certain time period, such as 1218 lots of buy orders appearing continuously. In fact, this is not accidental. You should know that the daily work of traders is very boring and hard, just constantly placing orders. It is not their turn to make a plan. The plan is made by the main trader, and they are often only responsible for the basic order execution. Most of the time, their pending order transaction volume will be required to hang random numbers to complete the transaction, but often some people can't help it, look for excitement, or inadvertently, and will continuously enter the same number. After all, entering the same number is a simple thing that does not require thinking, while continuously entering different numbers requires some brain cells, which is not easy after a long time. This number may be his birthday, or bank card password, or the date of the day. Retail investors have so little money, and the transaction is completed in one transaction. Even if it is divided into several or even more transactions, it is highly likely that it will not be divided into consecutive identical non-integer orders.
Why not enter the market when you find the dealer is accumulating funds? Why wait until the market is rising? Although entering at this time has a great cost advantage, it is actually unnecessary, because if you rush to buy during the dealer's accumulation stage, the amount of funds will be large, and the dealer's goal is to get the guys who are grabbing the chips. If they don't get them, it is unlikely to start the market. Even if it is slightly killed and washed, it is unbearable, after all, the dealer is the home court. At the same time, even if the amount of funds is not large, the start time is uncertain, which may waste a lot of time and opportunity costs.
Therefore, the best time to intervene is not the stage when the market maker is accumulating funds, but the transition stage from accumulating funds to pulling up after the market maker has completed accumulating funds!
If the market maker intervenes at this stage, it is likely that he will have to shoot because of many cost restrictions and considerations, and retail investors will have a good chance of winning.
The essence of all excellent trading techniques is: embrace high probability and guard against low probability. The low probability is that the dealer suddenly stops pushing up the price, or even starts to smash the market. It may be because he noticed the abnormality of the market, or it may not be the case. He just wants to smash the market, or even there is a problem within the trading team. There are various possibilities. In theory, if there are no such low probabilities, trading will become much simpler: buy directly, wait for the dealer to push up the price, and do not move no matter how the market fluctuates, and move forward and backward with the dealer.
Unfortunately, small probabilities will always exist. If you go all in every time and live and die with the dealer every time, the success rate of the transaction may be very high and the profit will be greater each time. The problem is that as time accumulates, small probabilities will become high probabilities, and accidents will become inevitable, and there will always be a time when you will sink to the bottom of the sea with a dealer.
Therefore, as long as you buy during the transition stage from accumulation to price increase and cut off the risks, the market makers will have no way to do anything to you.