【0511 Market Analysis and Suggestions】2/2
III. On-chain and off-chain data
1. During the decline on Friday, there was no sign of increased exit of both profitable and loss-making chips. From the distribution of on-chain chips, the low point of 56,600 last week was the position for short-term participants to buy the bottom, with about 200,000 chips. The exit rate of profitable holders at this price and below was less than 6% of the trading volume on the day during the decline on Friday; at the same time, the stop loss rate of loss-making investors with a position price above US$64,000 was less than 8% of the trading volume on the day, and neither of them showed signs of increased stop loss exit. The most exits were short-term traders who bought in newly, which was not enough to form a trend.
2. The stock of $BTC on the exchange reached 1.75 million. Since the new low of 1.724 million on April 24, the cumulative increase was 26,000, and the growth in more than half a month was less than 1.6%. There was no large selling pressure from high-weights, but it is currently showing a mild rise, which requires some time to further digest.
4. Technical aspects
The daily level is in the falling channel, and the 60-day and below moving averages are all downward. It will take some time for the moving average to repair. The 120-day medium- and long-term lifeline (58276) is still upward and will become an important support. The probability of a short-term break is small.
5. Market tone and operation suggestions
1. The liquidity of the currency market is seriously insufficient, and the probability of a sharp drop at the current position is small. The information and data aspects dominate the market, and the sharp rise and fall are more frequent, and the volatility will increase. Next week, PPI and CPI may have a turning point.
2. Bitcoin: The weak market may continue until next month or even longer. Control the position and buy in batches when the price drops. The entry range is 56,000~60,000.
3. Copycat: Short-term operation, only operate hot spots and Dragon and Tiger List varieties, and wait and see when the new green is online.
