Let the data speak: Bitcoin is falling, and the sentiment of the cottage market is getting better!
With the new round of Bitcoin's decline from last night to now, the proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased, and the largest market value loss is the cottage market. At present, half of the market value decline basically comes from the cottage market.
However, in terms of trading volume, the cottage market's transactions are decreasing during the decline. This situation indicates that the cottage market has lost market value as the cottage market falls, but the selling sentiment of the cottage traders is weakening, and more people are choosing to wait and see and not sell. In other words, the recent decline of the cottage market has made traders numb and choose to continue holding. After this sentiment becomes stable, the cottage market will slowly become less liquid, and once the market stabilizes, the cottage market will have the opportunity to start a rotation rebound. It can also be regarded as an oversold rebound.
Although Bitcoin's trading volume increased during the decline, we learned from temporary observation data in the early morning that the 5 billion trading volume came from the false breakthrough of Bitcoin's 4-hour upward last night, that is, the upward breakthrough at the beginning of the 4-hour last night directly brought 5 billion trading volume in the short term. With such a small amplitude, the increase in trading data indicates that the long-short game is strong at this position, and the current result is that the long game has failed in the short term. Excluding the short-term surge of 50, the trading volume of Bitcoin has also decreased as it fell, but the decrease is not large.
In terms of funds, the retained funds on the market increased by 200 million, and the net inflow of mainstream stablecoins was 116 million per day.
The net inflow of Asian funds was 95 million, and continued to flow in, but the Asian fund band was still large, and the daily fund inflow was reduced.
The recent net inflow of US funds is rare, and pay attention to the US fund fluctuation chart. Today's highest inflow of US funds increased by 200 million compared with yesterday, but after the inflow, it is facing continuous outflow. At around 21:00 on the eve of the opening of the US stock market, it is still in an outflow state. Prove that US funds are still in an unstable state.
However, the return of US funds means that the mood of US traders is gradually improving. I hope that this net inflow can continue. The continued inflow of US funds also means that the confidence of US traders is constantly increasing, which will help the price of Bitcoin rebound.
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After the recent rebound, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating around the key position of the daily Bollinger Band midline. At present, the upper monthly EMA7 and the daily midline resistance level that we have focused on are moving down.
EMA7: 65,700, daily Bollinger Band midline: 63,300,
The downward movement of the key resistance level will bring greater pressure to the price rebound. And the indicator moves down, and the overall trend of the daily line is also moving downward.
The lower support, the current price has fallen below the 4-hour Bollinger Band lower line in the short term, resulting in a break. Although the selling pressure is not large in the short term, the current position cannot stimulate a rebound in buying volume.
Continue to fall below to see how the buying volume of the integer level 60,000 is. During this period, the 61,200 gold support can be used as a buffer.
The 4-hour Bollinger Band has completed its expansion during the decline. The short-term stop is because the 4-hour Bollinger Band triggered a small divergence. If you want to repair the divergence, you still need emotions to stimulate buying volume.
The RSI index fell back to around 50, and the index is relatively neutral, but the index has the risk of triggering a "death cross" and continuing to fall. The continued decline of the index means that the short-term market sentiment will continue to fall. Once it reaches 30, it can trigger a short-term oversold rebound sentiment. (Just look at this index)
Yesterday, in the small rebound of Bitcoin at the 4-hour level, we observed that Bitcoin's short-term trading volume exploded higher, but the price did not make a substantial breakthrough, so it was judged to be a false breakthrough. We will continue to look at today's market data and capital dynamics later. #BTC走势分析
