Correct understanding of interest rate cuts

Don't keep thinking about it, shouting about interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts are not the savior. The period of time when we are constantly expecting interest rate cuts is very precious. At least now we have stories about interest rate cuts to tell. Isn't the ambiguous period before falling in love very good?

Half-baked KOLs don't understand macroeconomics but love to shout about it. Interest rate cuts don't mean that money will come immediately. Interest rate cuts will have a transmission period of at least 0.5 to 1 year. "Interest rate cuts = loosening water" will mislead many retail investors. Now many retail investors are ready to rush in immediately after the interest rate cut (waiting to be cut). The macroeconomics needs to be seen, but it is meaningless to talk about macroeconomics every day.

Half-baked KOLs only know how to shout about interest rate cuts. Do you know what it means after the interest rate cut? After the interest rate cut, it is a story of recession. Now the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, which is a good thing, because the unemployment rate rises, so the interest rate has to be cut; once the interest rate is really cut, the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, which means recession.

Macroeconomic analysis is not something you can understand by watching a few videos or reading a few half-baked posts. At least you have to take out all the history of the world reconstruction after World War II and read it carefully. You have to understand why the US dollar is the basis of the world reconstruction, and you have to understand the challenges the US dollar is currently facing.

The period before the interest rate cut is a honeymoon period, a small spring. Ethereum and Shanzhai will go for a while, and institutions also need to sell and cash out before the recession narrative. This is the basic logic of this small bull market. "There will be no bull market without interest rate cuts." This idea is very dangerous and naive. Cherish this honeymoon period and hold your spot firmly. When the interest rate cut really comes, we will clear out/temporarily leave the market, and we will enter the market again when the recession narrative breaks down everyone's psychological defenses!

I am Si Qing, thank you for reading. If you want the latest information in the currency circle, click on the avatar introduction to find me #美联储何时降息？ #BTC $ETH