Yesterday (1 MAY), the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, exceeding the expected 175,000, the largest increase since July 2023. At the FOMC meeting in the early morning, the Federal Reserve announced as expected that interest rates would remain unchanged. At the meeting, it was acknowledged that inflation had not progressed smoothly recently, but Powell finally made a dovish statement, saying that it was unlikely to raise interest rates at the next meeting, and it was appropriate to postpone the rate cut at present.
Source: Economic Calendar
In terms of digital currency, the risk market has recently generated a certain risk aversion under the pressure of "higher and longer" interest rates in the United States, resulting in a large outflow of funds from ETFs. At the same time, whales have also sold off in the spot market, which has jointly caused the price of Bitcoin to plummet in the past two days. Some analysts pointed out that this round of price selling may be a profit-taking under macro pressure, including investors who entered the ETF in the early stage and holders who bought BTC during the downturn in the past two years.
Source: Farside Investors；TradingView
After the Fed meeting, the IV of the front end of the option fell rapidly during the day, and the term volatility curve was relatively flat; the Skew of the near end was still low, revealing the market's short-term panic and risk aversion. In terms of trading, the implied volatility level of BTC 31 MAY fell under the double selling pressure of Put and Call, and the main transactions of ETH were more concentrated on this expiration date. From the bulk records, in addition to the selling of Outright Call, there were also transactions selling short-term 17 MAY and buying 31 MAY, represented by the triangular spread strategy.
Source: Deribit (as of 2 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, BTC/ETH transaction overall distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
