Buffering is understood as a transition, a repair and adjustment period for the market and emotions. It cannot be simply defined by the word "end". End means no more, the end. Even without ETF, the funds and on-chain data in the second quarter of last year fully meet the standards of the beginning of the bear-to-bull transition. ETF just speeds up the progress emotionally and overdraws purchasing power. Since it is an overdraft, it always needs to slow down and take a break.
If we jump out of the present and look back at the past, you will find that it is not so "terrible". The following figure shows the retracement ratio of BTC's price from the highest point before and after the three halvings in history.
The first halving, the retracement from the highest point was -61.7%;
The second halving, the retracement from the highest point was -42.7%;
The third halving, the retracement from the highest point was -56.6%;
There have been many times in history when the retracement was more than 30%. A problem that has been mentioned many times before is that because ETFs have been highly consistent with US stocks through Bitcoin, in fact, the rhythm of this round was disrupted by ETFs in the early stage, otherwise there should be the opportunity of the three-line integration mentioned earlier, and the current price may still be around 40,000. In addition, the bull market of BTC itself will start in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
Don't expect too much for events that do not affect human survival and destiny.
There is also the altcoin season, which I think will definitely happen later. The outbreak of altcoins requires sufficient liquidity, and the release of liquidity requires several factors.
For example, the altcoin season in 2021 is an unprecedented release of water, and then a large amount of funds will overflow into (altcoins) after making profits in Bitcoin or other mainstream markets, which will drive the arrival of the altcoin season.
Therefore, the outbreak of altcoins usually comes after Bitcoin, but at least this time, although the first batch of increases came from BTC, there was no large amount of overflow funds.
In fact, a large number of sell-offs came from loss-making investors. Not to mention overflow funds, even the principal is not guaranteed, so it is normal that you feel that it is not altcoin season.
As mentioned two years ago, if we see a 4% unemployment rate before the election, there will be a new release of liquidity. In fact, this is the release of liquidity, which is actually a whole range, and even a good opportunity for altcoins.
