BTC continues its impulse decline today and is already testing $57,000; it was currently reaching $56,565. The price broke the range, as warned yesterday morning, focusing on the reversal of the Volatility Index. The Index again clearly indicated preparation for an upward reversal.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/89ef1220080f88cf896e53dbb2cb7898.png)
But the price went down again, delaying our expectations of a new ATH for BTC.
AT THIS TIME, the “Cheap” signal from the trend reversal indicator lit up on the daily TF (built according to the method of counting candles by Thomas DeMarco, signals for possible cancellation of trend reversals were added).
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/c2c480abddee3bbba5a08c1ec2ad1105.png)
We show separately on the chart when such signals appeared in 2023-2024. In 8 out of 10 cases of the current uptrend they led to at least a rebound. There were only two false signals - in March 2023 and July 2023.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/97becc03735a19f1268b2a0eae58fa6c.png)
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/385678786707019df96156136df98115.png)
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/0dd47f9ef1f8670884f839ef81c9b2b5.png)
Let's recall a quote from yesterday's review:
“For now, our expectation is that if the BTC price does not show a reversal today (which is unlikely) - the reduction level from March 14 will be delivered on May 1-2”
In the meantime, the price is going down. The important level of $58,797 has been broken; yesterday we called it the “watershed” between the scenario of a move to a new ATH and the scenario of a hike to $56,361, and in a more bearish scenario, even to $51,604. These are the two most important volume levels below the current rate to the psychological $50,000. While the price is below $58,797, we are waiting for a trip to them or to intermediate goals between them.
If the daily candle closes below $58,797, this is negative for the bulls and a signal to reach at least one of the targets. The first one, $56,361, is already close. Visually, it’s already close to the EMA 200 day TF ($51,927) and the ascending trend support passing approximately in the same place from October 2023 (based on candle bodies). And this is a pool of support. But we will only wait for a trip there if we fix the day below $56,361.
On the daily TF of USDT+USDC dominance, the “Expensive” signal lit up today.
![](https://public.bnbstatic.com/image/pgc/202405/cb1f700bc62f3d4cbd8adc70a9604b3c.png)
The break on May 1-2 should become a break before growth, but how strong it will be is still a question. The last time the indicator gave an “Expensive” signal was on the dominance of USDT+USDC on April 19. The BTC chart then showed a strong redemption candle, which showed +12.33% from low to high. But she couldn’t break through the EMA of the 50 day TF. Now from the current level to the EMA the 50 day TF is 12.5% 🙄. It lies just below the volume level of $64,120. That is, if the growth is the same this time, we will again only be talking about a rebound.
Let us again recall yesterday's assessment - we cannot talk about an upward reversal until the price has fulfilled three conditions:
- fixation by a daily candle above the volume level of $64,120,
- fixation above the EMA of the 50 day TF,
- breakdown of the downward trend since April 8.
Why is the situation now better for the bulls? The situation on April 19 is a reversal signal on the chart of BTC itself. Plus, the dominance of#USDT+#USDCnot only received a reversal signal, but also came to the test of the EMA 200 day TF. As long as the dominance is below it, you can generally expect a bullish reversal in the market.