Continuing from the last article: BTC is once again hovering between 59,000 and 63,000, and ETH has lost its strength after a short rise; the altcoin has also stopped at the previous low range again. The current market situation does give a feeling of impending storm!

But I want to say: Don't be too nervous! As the saying goes, the simplest way is the best way; the more complex and changeable the situation is, the more you need to learn to analyze calmly! Many times, it's just a blind spot!

1: Bitcoin reached my psychological expectation of 67,000 points as expected last week, but it did not continue to rise. From an intuitive point of view, 68,000 is a big pressure point, and the selling is too large; the speed of decline simultaneously proves that there are whales shipping, and it fell to the lowest level of 61,500 and fluctuated without a breakout trend. The opposite shows that capital is washing the market, not for a deep correction.

2: From the weekly level line of Bitcoin, it is highly likely that it will continue to fall, but it will not break 5.9! Panic sentiment continues to force retail investors to get out of the car, and the monthly level line is sideways and oscillating, entering May; the benefits of halving will gradually begin to appear, and the approval of the Hong Kong ETF means that Bitcoin has an additional capital entrance. The overall closing of the month should be a negative rise, but the amplitude will not be large.

3: It is undeniable that the approval of the Hong Kong Ethereum ETF has played a certain role in stopping the decline of the copycat, but since the United States has not passed it, from a reverse perspective, in the short term, Western capital will definitely carry out various suppressions on ETH. The United States cannot accept that the originally insufficient funds in the market are sucked back by ETH.

4: Bitcoin has long been a reservoir of US dollar funds following the US stock market. If the Americans intend to use BTC as a pool to receive the inflow of interest rate cut funds, then the approval of the Hong Kong ETF will undoubtedly increase their risks sharply. Before they are sure to curb ETH, it will be even more impossible to cut interest rates in the short term. Because of this, I am more convinced that the original situation of Ethereum ETF being passed or not will become a situation where it will definitely pass. As for when it will pass, it depends on how long the Americans can hold on to the high interest rates! Those who play ETH for the long term can hold on with confidence!

5: After the recent short-term rise of ETH, the rapid decline immediately seems to be intentional rather than a simple wash. If ETH successfully boosts market sentiment and cooperates with the Hong Kong ETF, it will inevitably attract a large amount of funds. It will be more difficult for the Americans to curb its price, which is not in their interests. Judging from the reaction of the SEC, it is obviously a bit of a show of loyalty. There is inevitably competition among major powers! The surface is calm, but the undercurrent is turbulent.

6: Hong Kong ETF officially opened today, but CZ was tried on the same day, and the hype of ETH defining securities further proves Dabai's logic that the United States and the West are suppressing Ethereum. Retail investors dare not easily enter the game at this moment. In order to allow limited funds to flow into Hong Kong ETF, this move is ruthless enough.

7: If the above logic is established, there will definitely be more funds dumping ETH in the near future. As for how strong the force is, it is hard to determine, so those who are ready to buy the bottom of ETH can wait a little longer. There is a high probability that ETH will fluctuate greatly next week. ETH contract players are not recommended to open positions this week.

8: Ethereum will definitely take off, but it is unrealistic in the short term. The active funds in the market will inevitably avoid the main battlefield and flow to the subsidiary sectors such as AI MEME gamefi. There is a high probability that an independent market will appear. Friends, please pay more attention! It is difficult for the general rise of the cottage market to appear in the short term, so Dabai recommends that the above sectors are currently only suitable for playing leading coins. Even if you want to play local dogs, you must play hot speculation currencies and look for opportunities to change positions in unpopular currencies!

9: In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to show a trend of Western support and Asian dumping, so the probability of Bitcoin breaking its previous high in the past two weeks is not high. Those who play Bitcoin can consider buying on dips, reducing positions on rallies and other bottom-fishing strategies, and use short-term pull-ups to reserve vacant positions in time for emergencies!

For my loyal fans, you can leave your questions in the comment area. If the same question has more than ten likes, Dabai can make a special analysis for the fans' questions.

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