Analysis of Bitcoin market:
For the current Bitcoin market, with the shock and decline, the market is not optimistic. The short-term stabilization is only driven by emotions.
First, let's look at the short-term rebound resistance level, 64,000 monthly resistance level, 64,800 daily resistance level. As the daily resistance level has been moving down since last week, it also proves that the daily trend has become a downward trend. The advantage of the downward movement of the resistance level is that it is conducive to the rebound distance of short-term prices, but the disadvantage is also very obvious. As the resistance moves down, once it coincides with the monthly resistance level, this stage will lead to stronger resistance to short-term price rebound. At present, 64,000-64,800 needs stronger strength in the rebound breakthrough.
The support below is actually less optimistic. At present, the effective support below the technical level is only around 61,200 in the short term. I have mentioned this support many times before. It is the gold support level. At the same time, the support of the three-day Bollinger band lower line has been added. If this position is broken, the so-called integer support around 60,000 below is still relatively weak, and there may be a short-term rebound in the sentiment of the integer level, but if it is really broken effectively, it will be a drop in the bucket.
The more pessimistic view is that the real effective support below is around 55,000-56,000, that is, once it falls below 60,000, there will still be a lot of room below.
Of course, the space for the decline below I mentioned is cyclical, not that it will fall directly to this position in the short term, so seeing this, many friends don’t need to panic, and we can make adjustments at any time with the decline in each stage.
At present, the only thing we can rely on for the rise of Bitcoin is the positive effects brought by the US stock market. We hope that the rise of the US stock market can bring positive optimism and help the price of Bitcoin rebound. Of course, if every rebound of Bitcoin cannot effectively break through and stand firm at the key resistance level, the bullish sentiment will gradually be weakened, thus forming a legitimate rebound and decline trend.
The RSI relative strength index has fallen to around 30 points, basically reaching the oversold rebound sentiment. With the rise of US stocks tonight, pay attention to the rebound sentiment of Bitcoin and the key resistance level.
We will use data to speak later.
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After getting rid of the stimulus of last week's US economic data, the US stock market will have a good start this week. Because of the optimism about stock market earnings, many US stocks rose before the market. At the same time, it also actively led to the rise of Asian stock markets, Nikkei, Hang Seng and A-shares today.
In terms of US stocks, it is worth noting that among technology stocks, Tesla's stock price rose 9% before the market because it was once again embraced by domestic policies, indicating that future sales have been recognized. At the same time, Apple and Amazon, which are also technology stocks, also rose slightly before the market because they will announce their financial reports this week. The stock prices of the other seven technology giants have not performed well before the market.
What is worth paying attention to in the early hours of Monday is the financial report of MSTR, that is, MicroStrategy. The financial report expectations should be good, but because the price of Bitcoin has been in a slump recently, it is difficult to determine whether the financial report announcement meets investors' expectations. MicroStrategy's stock price did not rise significantly before the market.
The US dollar index weakened slightly and currently remains at 105.6. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.626%, and the yen and RMB strengthened slightly against the US dollar.
Although international gold has temporarily lost its strong safe-haven demand, it still maintains a strong rise due to the weakening of the US dollar credit system, currently at $2,342.
As for international crude oil, due to the negotiation and cooperation between Hamas and Fahta last week, the factors of regional instability were reduced, and the United States has begun to promote a peace agreement between Hamas and Israel, causing the price of crude oil to fall back to $88 in the short term.
The daily price of international white sugar continues to rise, currently at $19.33.
For the Middle East, I believe that the peace agreement cannot bring long-term peace. When to establish a Palestinian state is the fundamental. Israel should not compromise on this point for the time being, which is to force the United States to intervene in practice.
The CME Bitcoin futures index is currently quoted at around 62,700, and continues to maintain a positive premium of 400 points with the spot. According to historical data, a positive premium of 400 points is a normal futures market sentiment that is slightly bullish, and the bullish force is obvious.
What needs to be noted in the US economy this week is the release of the US non-agricultural data and the Fed's interest rate decision for this month in the early hours of Thursday.Regarding employment data, the data is mostly to show the good employment situation in the United States. The data has declined, but it should be a benign cooling. As for the interest rate decision, continuing to maintain the current interest rate is still the theme. The key is whether the market can get the latest dynamics of the Fed's interest rate cut this year.
Bitcoin is currently fluctuating downward, but it has not touched the key gold support position. Let's take a look at the overall situation of the market later.
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