Market summary:
For contract traders, how to grasp the reasonable position of range oscillation to go long or short will be the theme for some time in the future. At the same time, what is the position of breakthrough that needs to stop loss and change direction? Be sure to make this expectation and don't try to make a trend. At present, even if many people are optimistic about the bearish trend, the whole process is not smooth sailing. Once the position of building a position is not ideal, it is very likely that the stop loss position will be hit in a certain rebound. Therefore, contract traders must learn to be cautious and improve risk control.
For spot traders and coin hoarders, waiting may be the theme for some time in the future. For the callback market of oscillating decline, as long as there is no sharp drop, each sector of the cottage will have the possibility of rotation during the period, so it is an important point to reasonably control your positions and chips.
The passage of ETF has changed the fundamentals of Bitcoin, and also made many people expect that the callback space of Bitcoin will change. Therefore, even if it is a callback, it may not be as expected, and the decline is not so painful. In the flat oscillating market, any hot spot may bring a wave of market rebound and rise. What spot traders need to do is not to blindly pursue and build positions in small-level breakthroughs, and in small-level declines, if your chips are in a good position, do not blindly throw away your chips.
Giving up frequent trading and being more patient will be the theme for some time in the future, and it is also the market's experience for all traders. In fact, crypto market traders lack more patience for traditional financial traders, and with the passage of ETFs, Bitcoin has gradually matured and is close to traditional finance, so the previous impatient operation method may require each trader to make changes.
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The data released by the United States yesterday, the U.S. stock market and the entire risk market were frustrated. Although the performance was different, we can clearly see what the general purpose of the United States is.
First of all, the confidence of the global economy and the market in the United States is obviously declining. The core is the control of the economy and its own economic risks, and what the United States needs to do is to show its strong "muscles" to the outside world.
Everyone is actually paying attention to how the U.S. economy will land. Regardless of the real internal factors, it must show its strength to the outside world. The best outcome for the U.S. economy is a soft landing, and the important factors for a soft landing are that economic growth slows down, but it cannot be negative growth. Inflation is under control, employment data is stable and healthy, and financial markets are stable.
At present, the situation created by the United States at least through data is that the economy has indeed slowed down, employment data is healthy, and although inflation is under pressure, it is still within the control of the Federal Reserve. Coupled with the relatively stable performance of the financial market, the United States is to give the world a soft landing expectation.
Of course, can the U.S. economy land softly? You can tell by asking him to cut interest rates and see the situation. Therefore, because the United States wants a "soft landing" for the economy, the expectation of interest rate cuts will be greatly reduced.
The rebound of the US stock market in the early morning, and even the current pre-market rise, is mainly due to the frequent release of financial reports of technology stocks. Relying on technology stocks to stabilize the risk market and even bring about an increase is what the United States has been doing last year.
But in such a high-interest environment, where can technology stocks drive the stock market? And how long can the crypto market rely on the trend of US stocks in the absence of a new main narrative?
According to the external display of strength, while maintaining the blood-sucking ability of the US dollar and US bonds, delaying the interest rate cut in the short term, etc., in the future, before the Federal Reserve determines the interest rate cut, the entire risk market, including the crypto market, will enter a trend of shock, grinding, and callback, especially the US stock market. It is very important to let the US stock market enter a callback period and remain stable under the premise of avoiding a vicious decline.
Tonight's PCE data should not be too outrageous. It is still the same theme. There is pressure on inflation, but it is still within the controllable range.
At the same time, yesterday's ETF market suffered the largest single-day capital outflow since the ETF was passed. According to Bloomberg, the net outflow of funds was nearly 218 million US dollars. However, don't panic. We can see that during the day with the largest single-day outflow, the decline of Bitcoin was also limited. The ETF market does not represent the core transaction flow of the current Bitcoin market. It can only unilaterally represent the emotions of American traders.
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