Market Analysis 4.26
Good morning, brothers. The market rebounded, but now it seems to be weak again.
Three important data were released last night:
- Unemployment: lower than expected, negative
- Initial GDP annualized quarterly rate: much lower than expected, positive
- PCE in the first quarter: expected to be 3.4%, announced to be 3.7%, negative
Overall, it is negative, but the market has already fallen before the data is released
Therefore, it can be regarded as a rebound after the release of negative
Today, two more important data were released
(1) Core PCE in March
(2) University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
It should still fluctuate + fall before the data is released
Three possibilities
(1) Not much higher than expected, and the rebound trend will continue (60% probability)
(2) Lower than expected, there will be a surge (20% probability)
(3) Much higher than expected, BTC will fall by about 5% (20% probability)
