Market sentiment has improved. With earnings week and core inflation week, U.S. stocks have rebounded. Will Bitcoin start a new round of rise along with U.S. stocks?
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 66,200. Bitcoin has temporarily stabilized after breaking through the 1-hour Bollinger Band today, but the key resistance level has not been effectively broken. Can it continue to rise in the future?
The U.S. stock market is entering the earnings week and core inflation week. After falling last week, the U.S. stock market began to rise. If the earnings report is positive, can Bitcoin continue to follow the sentiment and rise?
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Yesterday we said that the 1-hour Bollinger Band in Bitcoin’s price trend was about to break through. Although the price was on the edge of danger at the time, it showed an upward breakthrough trend, which is a good thing.
Although it broke through upward, the key resistance level above, near the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band at 66,500, did not form an effective breakthrough and stabilize. The price is still running at the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band. From a technical point of view, the price trend is blocked and the risk of decline increases. However, after a breakthrough, it successfully stabilized above the monthly Bollinger Band.
Once it continues to fall, the support below comes from the 64,000 support of the monthly line. Although today's price breakthrough did not break through the daily resistance level, it successfully broke through the monthly line pressure and also brought short-term effective technical support to the short-term price.
The effective downward support is around 61,200. If there is a large decline in the short term, just pay attention to the two support situations.
At present, from the overall technical perspective, the 1-hour upward breakthrough, the 4-hour Bollinger Band is also experiencing a tightening breakthrough stage. If it matches the market sentiment, it is likely to break upward. Once the key resistance level of the daily line is broken and stabilized, the short-term price will enter a daily safety period.
The RSI relative strength index is currently around 56.8, a relatively neutral index that has not yet reached the overbought range.
The technical performance today is relatively optimistic, so let's take a look at the market data and whether funds will follow the optimistic tone later.
Speaking with data: Changes in crypto market data and funding
Compared with the data from last Friday, the market value has increased. The obvious difference lies in the changes in the proportion of Bitcoin and altcoins. As the market rebounded, the proportion of altcoins increased significantly and became the main force of the rise. Secondly, the proportion of Bitcoin decreased, while the proportion of Ethereum remained unchanged.
As the market value rises, transactions have obviously dropped significantly. The shrinking increase in volume represents the gradual recovery of the market's bullish sentiment. The trading volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum has been reduced by half. On the other hand, the transaction volume of copycats has only decreased by about 42%, which is relatively small. This shows that in the huge copycat market, copycats have not reached a unified subjective sentiment of rising prices.
In terms of funds, the retained funds increased by 1.7 billion compared with last Friday. This part of the funds came from the funds retained by on-site traders after completing transactions, as well as the inflow of over-the-counter funds and the inflow of additional issuance of other stablecoins.
While the current market prices are rising, the capital inflow into Asia is only 130 million, while the data was checked yesterday and it was around 300 million. There was capital outflow from Asia today.
US funds inflows of $750 million last Friday,
The total of 880 million means that 820 million of the increased retained funds came from inflows from other stablecoins.
The overall incremental inflow of funds is conducive to the future price trend. With the current optimistic trend on the technical side, the market is just waiting for a buy signal or sentiment.
Macroeconomics and news:
The Bitcoin halving event has already taken place. We found that Bitcoin lacked market hype before the reduction in production. After the Bitcoin ETF was approved, the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed. The future trend of Bitcoin may depend more on the US stock market and the US economy. Therefore, the narrative and hype of the US stock market may affect the trend of Bitcoin.
After the U.S. stock market experienced a setback in technology stocks last Friday, there will be a wave of technology stock earnings reports this week, which will be the main narrative of the U.S. stock market this week and will also be an important factor affecting the trend of Bitcoin. So this week, we should pay attention to the earnings reports of the seven major U.S. technology giants.
This week's financial report main timeline:
Tesla will release its earnings report on Tuesday, April 23, when the U.S. stock market is closed.
Meta will release its financial report on Wednesday, April 24.
Microsoft and Alphabet (Google's parent company) will release their earnings reports on April 25.
Apple will release its financial report on May 2.
As for Amazon, the exact time is currently unknown, but it is estimated to be around the end of April or the beginning of May.
Nvidia’s financial report is currently scheduled to be released on May 22.
The focus of this week is Meta's earnings report on Wednesday. The stock has the largest increase of 36% this year. The release of earnings reports is a test for companies to go through the market, and it is also a stage for traders to adjust their valuation expectations of the company. If Meta, as the best-performing technology stock this year, reports earnings that are lower than expected, it will directly lead to a decline in traders' expectations for US technology stocks, a decline in valuations, and even a sell-off.
However, at present, with the support of international media, the financial report expectations for technology stocks should not be too bad.
In terms of US macro data, pay attention to the release of the core PCE index on Thursday and Friday, which is also the core data for measuring US inflation. However, judging from the recent US data play, the previous hawkishness has almost scared the US stock market. It is expected that the data released this week will be relatively mild, and then the US stock market will be supported in conjunction with the financial report.
At present, the most likely negative factor for the risk market is geopolitical factors. However, based on the current situation, unless S3 breaks out or the possibility of S3 breaking out increases, the risk market should be safe in the short term. There is no need to panic, but just pay attention to risk avoidance.
Market summary:
Bitcoin's technical performance is good. Pay attention to the situation where the price breaks through key resistance. If it does not break through key resistance, do not blindly rise too high based on the current position.
The market data is not bad, with shrinking volume and rising prices, good off-market capital inflows, and good capital sentiment.
As the U.S. stock market begins to warm up for earnings reports, the U.S. stock market has risen. The release of core inflation data this weekend is expected to be relatively mild. After all, the U.S. stock market needs to stabilize sentiment and support the market.
Once Bitcoin breaks through the key resistance level, as long as it keeps fluctuating sideways, the altcoin will have more opportunities to become active. After all, with the increase of funds in the market, fund holders should be waiting for a stabilization signal.
If the breakthrough is invalid and there is a short-term decline, there is no need to panic as long as 64,000 is not broken.
Finally, thank you all for following Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
