Too many things have happened in the past two days, so I won’t describe them one by one. The conflict is not expected to escalate and break out, so don’t panic. It’s just that our currency circle is 7X24 hours. We bought the black swan again. For 413 and 414, it is also a day that can be recorded in history. Many people may have their accounts halved. In the bull market, this magnitude of decline is also a necessary practice process for the bull market. For ALT (copycat) holders, it is more miserable. It should be difficult for anyone to perfectly avoid this wave, especially ALT contract holders. It is a blessing in disguise that there is no liquidation. ALT itself comes with leverage. If you add leverage to ALT, the risk-return will definitely increase exponentially. In the bull market, surviving is the most important thing. As long as you survive, you have a chance to turn over. Even if you have a backhand, you will be timid later, which will lead to the inability to exert your full potential in the bull market. At the same time, I believe that there should be many people who have bought the bottom in this wave. There is nothing else to say, I can only congratulate you! ! The bull market is definitely still there, don’t shout bear easily.

China Asset Management (Hong Kong) has obtained approval from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to provide virtual asset management services to investors. It now plans to issue ETF products that can invest in Bitcoin spot and Ethereum spot. Hashkey and Boshi Fund have also been approved. This time, the Hong Kong ETF will adopt a "physical" subscription mechanism, allowing investors to directly use Bitcoin and Ethereum to subscribe for ETF shares. According to reports, these funds should be able to start trading and listing as early as the end of April or early May. We know that US ETFs can only be subscribed and redeemed in cash, so basically all of them are net inflows and outflows of US dollars. Choosing to subscribe and redeem in kind is nothing more than giving investors an arbitrage space. It has a real meaning for the market price push, but it is much worse than the US ETF. The biggest beneficiary this time is undoubtedly Ethereum, after all, this is the first approved Ethereum spot ETF.

Not all ALTs fell madly this time. For the RWA sector, some of them did not fall much but rose even more. In addition, some assets with their own pledge also performed well. This points the way for the subsequent direction. The AI ​​sector should be the leader of this decline. It rose quickly and fell quickly. It can only be said that the AI ​​in the currency circle is currently hyping the bubble and riding the concept. There is no real application. But it still does not prevent it from being the revolutionary leader of future technology. It depends on the first and second waves. Now there are only those AI sectors that can be hyped, so it is limited to this bull market. In a few years, it may become old stuff.The current CEX leaders should be TAO and WLD.

Bitcoin is only 5 days away from halving. The reward for each block will be reduced to 3.125 coins after halving. I think this decline can be regarded as the decline before and after halving. As for after halving, it usually does not start to rise immediately. It takes a certain amount of time to consume the supply from miners. According to history, the price of the currency may double in half a year after halving.

Let me tell you why my sixth sense has a big one. In fact, there is some logic. It is not pure feeling, but it is indeed greater than logic. First of all, gold, US dollar, and Bitcoin, the three relatively opposite assets, are all rising. This is obviously problematic. There is always one that should fall, so Bitcoin will eventually fall. In addition, there is a gap in CME futures near 63,000 that has not been filled. So far, the larger gaps are generally filled. Of course, the most critical logic is that it will be halved soon.

Market Interpretation

Such a large decline, after the negative news did not spread, plus the positive support of today's Hong Kong ETF approval, basically supported it, but the big cake still did not stand on the 5-day line. The most important thing at the moment is to look at the trend of the US stock market. Although the US stock futures have been rising since the opening of the morning, it is not guaranteed that the opening will be lower, so the probability of a second exploration still exists. And I mentioned yesterday that there will be a low point on Tuesday and Wednesday, which does not mean that there will be a new low, which means that there is still an opportunity to get on the train.

At present, I think the probability of breaking a new low this week is less than 50%. Looking at the big level, the weekly trend is relatively poor. From the weekly line, there is still a possibility of a new low in the next few weeks, but bottom-fishing should still be patient and hold the currency. At least get through April

With the approval of the Hong Kong ETF, Ethereum began to have expectations, and the exchange rate began to rebound, but this time the decline was really deep, almost breaking the key bull-bear line MA120, but fortunately it has not broken yet.

If you don't dare to buy SOL at 200, you should at least dare to buy SOL at 150 or 120. In fact, it is not easy to buy the bottom of this decline. It fell at night, and most Asians were asleep. SOL at 150 is not really high. A 30% drop from the high point is in line with expectations.Leverage is a good thing, but it is also a tool for educating people. Leverage should be used properly, not often!

Today's Panic Greed Index: 74 (Greed)

I am May. If you want to dig deep in the currency circle and can't find a clue, and want to get started quickly, welcome to join the village. I hope everyone will be responsible for every decision in life. Come on! #比特币减半 #WIF #sui $BTC $SOL