Last night was the Fed's July FOMC meeting. I guess many people saw "maintaining interest rates unchanged" when they woke up in the morning and didn't pay much attention to it, because since the Fed's last interest rate hike in July last year, the market has been expecting a rate cut, but the result of each interest rate meeting has been to maintain interest rates unchanged for a whole year.

Later, everyone also knows Powell's speaking style. The main focus is to keep a tight mouth and try not to release interest rate cut signals to the market. The main purpose is to avoid the situation similar to the first half of the year when the market was too excited and "opening champagne in advance" again.

But last night, although Powell's speech still tried his best to avoid making decisions in advance, the words revealed the possibility of an upcoming interest rate cut, and clearly mentioned that the September meeting might discuss interest rate cuts, and the "confidence" needed for interest rate cuts has increased.

Compared with the previous meeting statement, there are many adjustments in the July meeting statement, which shows that the Fed has begun to prepare for a rate cut:

1) In the description of the job market, "employment growth remains strong" was changed to "slowed down", and the unemployment rate was pointed out to be "rising".

2) In the description of inflation, the inflation was adjusted from "high" to "somewhat high".

3) In terms of inflation progress, "moderate" progress was adjusted to "some" progress.

4) In terms of risk balance, "has been moving towards a better balance" was adjusted to "continue to move towards a better balance". "Pay close attention to inflation risks" was adjusted to "pay close attention to two-way risks under dual goals".

After the resolution and press conference, the market reaction was also relatively positive. In terms of US stocks, the gains of US stocks narrowed slightly, but the overall performance was good. In the end, the Dow Jones Index rose by 0.24% and the Nasdaq Index rose by 2.64%; in terms of US bonds, the 10-year US bond yield fell by nearly 100 BP after the press conference, and is now close to 4%; the US dollar fell after the press conference, and the overall performance was volatile; gold rose significantly, rising to nearly US$2,500/ounce.

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