In the past 24 hours, the long leverage has been liquidated continuously, and 960 million bubbles have been added on the basis of yesterday's 940 million, which directly cleared out the lucky part of yesterday who continued to go long from the bottom. From the current technical logic, it is indeed at the relative bottom of this round of correction, but the last exploration is still conservatively believed to appear around the 16th.

Several friends asked me about the judgment of this time point. To put it simply, when the market started a new round of downward movement around the 10th, there must have been changes in the macro environment. At that time, my uncle believed that inflation intensified and the expectation of interest rate cuts was delayed, and there would be a certain amount of negative digestion, and combined with the short-term monthly correction, it would take some time.

However, the sudden war risk yesterday accelerated the expectation of technical correction and callback, and the sharp drop was comparable to the previous 519. Everyone knows what happened after 519. After a round of retracement, Bitcoin went straight to a new high after a short two-month repair. From the perspective of the bull market cycle, there is no suspense about the new high of Bitcoin after a short adjustment, and the difference in this round of bull market is that the current cottage is in a collective stagflation environment. The reduction of the burden means that the major project parties will finally take action, provided that everyone survives until then.

The relationship between war and the decline of the big pie is essentially the relationship between the expected increase in US inflation and the risk market. The war started with a surge in crude oil prices, a stronger dollar, increased US inflation, delayed expectations of interest rate cuts, and reduced risk capital liquidity. This is the logic. Black swans are most likely to appear when there are huge changes in the macro environment between high interest rates and upcoming interest rate cuts. The current trend feels like a black swan, and after this battle it is more like a prelude to a big bull market.
 

Bitcoin plunged 290,000 people liquidated and directly became a hot topic on Weibo. Contracts are like this, very fast, but easy to lose everything. There are still 6 days before the Bitcoin halving. The market cycle has finally returned to the state of the sharp drop before the halving. The spot is very slow, but if you persist in such a situation, we will be greeted by a new round of exponential surge in the future.

In the face of many negative factors in the short term, Uncle San would like to give everyone a recharge of faith.
 

Token2049 will be held in Dubai from April 15th to April 21st;

4.15 HK Securities Regulatory Commission will approve the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs: Harvest Global and China Asset Management;

4.20 Bitcoin will usher in a new round of halving;

On April 25-30, HK Bitcoin spot ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange;

4.30CZ Judgment Day;

5.1 The Federal Reserve holds its third interest rate meeting of the year;

The 2024 Bitcoin Summit will be held in HK on 5.9-5.10;

5.23 Ethereum ETF approval deadline.
 

In the future market, with the new round of leverage cleanup, the acceleration of the launch will gradually increase. With the approval of HK Bitcoin spot ETF, the entry of oriental funds will make up for the funding gap of the temporary interest rate cut extension. The new round of interest rate meeting will further determine the intensity and time of the annual interest rate cut, and the future benefits will be more clearly implemented. The approval of Ethereum ETF will clarify the future policy trends and ecological expectations.
 

Needless to say, the partners whose contracts have been liquidated at this stage have no choice but to regret. Uncle San has always said that the market can definitely teach what I can't teach, and the market will teach again and again what it can't teach once. Spot players are currently hesitating between cutting losses and not cutting losses. Uncle San believes that if there are still idle chips in hand, pay attention to the parts that are more resistant to declines in recent days. He also gave some suggestions yesterday. There is no need to cut losses for those who did not reduce their positions in the early stage. The market will bottom out in three days at most, and new hope will come.
 

Regarding bottom fishing, don't try to predict the bottom now. The bottom position is not much different from now, so just do it in batches. Then close the account and lie flat for two months. When you come back again, the position must be more than doubled.
 

Now the bulls are gone, and it turns out that it is the same group of people who said that the annual profit of the big cake will reach 200,000 yuan. They are just following the trend and have no subjective judgment. The market will not simply move in the direction of our expectations. The process is tortuous, the future is bright, and we must be on the train.

BTC: Let me briefly talk about it. The technical side is currently at the end of the daily triangle consolidation. The direction is consistent with previous expectations. It bottomed out in the middle of the month and started to reach a new high in the second half of the month. So it is better to buy the bottom in batches. If you encounter a short-term spike, don't hesitate to enter the market directly. If you have enough positions, just be patient and wait for the end of this period. The time point focuses on the adjustment of next Monday. The bottom will be reached at the latest on Tuesday night. The last drop before the new high is finally here.
 

ETH: The position of ether has always been moderate, there is really nothing to say, the weakness is linked to Bitcoin. The judgment of breaking the historical high before the end of May remains unchanged, so I will leave it here. It is the only currency that I have increased my position at present.

In terms of covering positions, the first priority is what you have in hand, and appropriately increase the average price. The second priority is the ones that are relatively resistant to falling, at least those that have not fallen below the bottom support of the daily line, such as BCH, ORDI, SOL, ONDO, DOGE, etc.
 

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #比特币减半 #CPI数据 #大盘走势 $BTC