【Blockchain Brief 0411】
I. Macroeconomic data:
1. US dollar index: closed up 1.043% at 105.2
2. Treasury prices: 10-year US Treasury yields broke the key threshold of 4.5% and closed at 4.514%. The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, rose nearly 20 basis points to close at 4.941%
3. Gold prices: closed down 0.79% at $2,333.73 per ounce
4. WTI crude oil: WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.08% at $86.2 per barrel
5. Stock market: Dow Jones 1.09%, S&P 500 down 0.95%, Nasdaq down 0.84%
6. USDCNY: 7.253
7. Rate hike expectations: According to the Fed's interest rate monitor, the probability of maintaining interest rates at 5.25-5.50 in May is 98%, and the probability of a rate cut to 5.00-5.25 is 2%.
8. Cryptocurrency: The overall market value rose by 0.5% to $2.61T, the 24-hour trading volume fell by 6.73% to $92.97B, and the stablecoin market value increased by 1.2% to 150.05B
9. ETH staking: The current staking amount is 31.39METH, and the staking rate is 26.11%
II. 9 ETF holdings data:
Updated on April 10:#Grayscaledecreased by 4,245 $BTC (-293.6 million US dollars) and currently holds 318,452 $BTC ($22B).#Blackrockincreased by 1,868 $BTC (+129.2 million US dollars) and currently holds 266,102 $BTC (18.4 billion US dollars).
9 ETFs (including #Grayscale) decreased by 2,714 $BTC (-187.7 million US dollars).
3. Yesterday's macro news:
1. The U.S. CPI in March increased by 3.5% year-on-year, a six-month high, higher than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.2%; the month-on-month increase was 0.4%, also higher than the expected 0.3%, and the same as the previous value. The core CPI was higher than expected for the third consecutive month, with an annual rate of 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.7%, and the monthly rate remained at 0.4%. As of this morning, the swap market bet that the probability of the Fed's June rate cut was 18%, and the annual rate cut was only 41 basis points, that is, less than two times.
2. After the release of the CPI data, U.S. President Biden said that he still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of the year, and Wednesday's report may postpone the start of the rate cut by at least one month.
3. Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: Almost all participants believed that it was appropriate to cut interest rates this year, and they were ready to slow down the pace of Treasury bond reduction "quite quickly", and tended to reduce the monthly rate of balance sheet reduction by about half.
4. The U.S. budget deficit exceeded $1 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year, and interest costs increased by 36%.
