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The US stock market fell at the opening, causing the crypto market to follow suit. It has now fallen below the first support range and rebounded. Pay close attention to the second support. Don't panic if the second support is not broken. #大盘走势

The US stock market fell at the opening, causing the crypto market to follow suit. It has now fallen below the first support range and rebounded. Pay close attention to the second support. Don't panic if the second support is not broken.

#大盘走势

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薛定谔的猫叔
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Bitcoin market analysis:

Bitcoin started a rebound in the early hours of Monday morning, successfully touched the resistance level of the daily line and then fell back. It is currently stabilizing and fluctuating above 70,000. The daily Bollinger Bands are gradually shrinking. According to the current trend, as long as it stabilizes above 70,000, the probability of the subsequent daily Bollinger Bands shrinking and breaking upward will be greater.

Currently, affected by the macro-economy, the sentiment of the risk market is relatively depressed.

The short-term resistance levels are 72,300, 72,600, and 73,000, respectively from the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily resistance levels. The successful breakthrough of each resistance level depends on the next one.

To break through the daily line, we must look at the previous historical high, and then the 77,300 resistance level from the weekly line. Of course, once the weekly resistance level is about to be touched, it means that another wave of surge will come. However, the upward movement of the key resistance level also relieves the pressure on the subsequent rise in Bitcoin prices in the short term.

At present, Bitcoin has stabilized near 70,000. Let's pay attention to the support below.

Today's support situation is quite special. The technical support below forms an effective support range due to the compression of the Bollinger Bands. There will be a pin-piercing amplitude in the range.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near yesterday's first support, and it has effectively fallen below and rebounded again during the day. Because this support area is close to the support range below, the support effect is significantly weakened. We will temporarily ignore this support level.

The first support, 69,000-70,000, is a short-term support with general support. This support is a support range formed by different degrees of technical support brought by 1 hour, 4 hours and daily lines. Because the support positions of various technical indicators are close, we directly regard it as a support range.

The second support, 68,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is effectively supported by the daily 4-hour EMA200, the daily Bollinger Band middle line, the 3-day EMA7 and the weekly EMA7. The support strength is strong and is also the support level of the daily short-term trend. This position will determine whether the price will continue to fall after falling back.

The third support, 66,500, is a short-term support with strong support. This support is supported by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Band. If the second support determines whether the short-term decline in the daily line will continue, then the third support determines the entire decline above 60,000.If the monthly support is broken, the downward pressure will be greater, and the risk of further decline will be greater.

Last week, we can see that Bitcoin did not fall below the key support level in the upper and middle levels, so the price rebounded after stabilizing.

The technical results we get are still optimistic enough. Although the price has fallen back after hitting the high support, the decline has stabilized above 70,000. In the past two weeks, most of Bitcoin was consolidating and changing hands above 65,000. Now the range of fluctuations has moved up, and fluctuations also mean turnover. As long as there is no negative impact below this position, it will be more conducive to the short-term bottoming of Bitcoin prices here. It will also help the price rebound later.

In particular, we noticed that it has become a long-term shock, rebound, and shock, and the technical support below has been continuously moving up, which is conducive to helping the price stabilize sentiment again.

The RSI relative strength index has now fallen back to 60. Compared with yesterday's position of 69, the decline in the index means that in the current short-term decline of Bitcoin, investor sentiment has been buffered. The continued decline of the index will be conducive to triggering buying power in the future market
#大盘走势
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See T&Cs.
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市场总结: 虽然比特币短期的反弹并且企稳是好事,但是看山寨的情况,交易者情绪依旧是比较紧张,而短期的比特币企稳62,300上方之后,出现了交易量明显增幅,这种增幅只要继续随着比特币价格企稳在62,300上方就好,短期的交易量增加,换手的增加,有助于价格短期筑底,有利于之后的价格突破。 而上方突破,目前重点关注今天我们说的日线阻力位的情况,这个位置突破,就可以直接去看月线67,200的阻力位附近了。当前阶段大环境情况不佳,所以我们一定要注意涨了不一定要追涨,一定注意突破情况以及企稳情况再去下手。 而山寨方面,只要明天的生产者物价指数以及周三的CPI数据不会出现明显的利空,比特币只要继续企稳日线布林带上轨运行,那么周三之后的山寨会逐渐反弹,所以不要着急。不过反弹之后也不要过于乐观,仓位过重的话,一定要调控手里的山寨进行减仓整理,当然这种减仓是根据个人情况来,而不是无脑割肉。 对于未来,我坚信我们会迎来一波山寨与比特币共同的大牛市,所以短期如果被套,无法解套的情况下,就要学会用时间换空间。如果想要获得建议,老粉私下找我就可以,标明自己的思路,是屯币,还是调整仓位,每个代币的标的,成本价格,以及中仓位情况,如果时间允许,我会一一整理回复。 #BTC走势分析
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宏观经济与消息面: 虽然今晚的美股是以上涨开盘,但是涨幅不会太好,能保持涨幅收盘可能是最好的结果。 目前作为美股主力的科技7雄,股价涨跌参半,情绪一般。 虽然风险市场对于本周CPI的数据是乐观的,但是这种乐观将会在明天要先接受一场考验。明天是美国生产者物价指数的公布日,该指数也是衡量通胀指标的重要数据之一,目前该指数前值2.1%,预期2.2%,预期高于前值,只要公布值不超前值就是利好。 不过明天晚间22:00鲍威尔与欧洲央行管委诺特共同参加一场会议并且发表讲话,对于欧洲的小弟们,美国如何忽悠,这一点将会决定讲话的导向,不过既然已经成功诱导了欧洲部分国家的降息,估计美联储依旧是忽悠小弟们自己也会尽快降息,毕竟长期维持利率差对于目前欧洲的经济状态并不是很乐观。而一旦按照这个导向来看,预期降息的热点会被放大。 以上属于个人猜测,如果真的按照这个路线走,那对于风险市场短期是好事。 而这里,顺便说一下目前网上传的比较多的Tether公司将会被美国审查这件事,个人觉得目前Tether在大选结束前被审查或者“真正”审查的概率很小。 很多人认为该公司被审查的愿意是因为世界上很多不法活动都是在用USDT在活动,但是你们也别忘记了之前就有消息报道,在很多美国的虚拟资产冻结互动中,Tether也是立场明确,动作果断的帮助冻结链上资产,很配合。 其次,Tether在发行USDT中锚定的绝大部分公司资产都是美元资产,其中美债占有很大一部分,如果这个时候搞Tether,无疑是逼着该公司抛售美债,对于美债来说,这是美国目前战略目标之一,不会让美债的价格轻易受损。 综上所述两点,所以我保守的认为,起码在大选结束之前,Tether不会这么容易被清算或者起诉,当然,Tether被盯上是正常的,这要看Tether在美国国内的站位如何,如果短期被盯上,也是因为之前的财报确实优异,肯定会遭人嫉妒,其次,短期被盯上,估计也是为了“揩油”而已。 稍后是市场总结。 #BTC走势分析 #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布
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用数据说话:反弹中山寨再次遇阻,交易量逐渐增加。 我们的数据是对比上周五,也就是上周最后一个正常交易日来对比,虽然比特币在周五晚间出现了下跌,但是今天下午的反弹基本已经磨平了周五下跌导致的市值损失。 不过,随着市场市值一跌一涨,导致山寨损失较大,周六虽然短期山寨出现了超跌反弹,但是周末再次变得疲软。通过一个周末的调整,比特币的市值占比明显增幅,而市场占比损失最大的就是山寨。随着山寨占比降低,市场情绪也逐渐由风险倾向转为更加保守。 交易量方面,目前交易量基本与周五持平,并且随着我们统计数据的期间观察,在比特币突破62,300以后,交易量逐渐增加,尤其是在冲高63,000之后的回落后,交易量短期激增,说明在比特币的突破到当前位置多空博弈较强。如果随着交易量的增加,只要不跌破日线关键位置的话,交易量增加是好事,大量的换手更容易企稳。但是一旦跌破62,300位置,继续交易量的增加,反而会代表短期抛压的增加,是坏事。 所以不同的走势下,交易量增加代表的情况不同。 资金方面目前表现还不错,目前场内留存资金减少1亿,场外主流稳定币净流出0.21亿,流出幅度不大,其中亚洲资金净流出0.66,并且数据图表现波动依旧是较大,交易量增加,资金稳定性较差,流动性增加。 美国资金USDC,净流入0.45亿,短期出现回流,不过美国资金的今天波动也呈现出较大的波动,交易量较周末增加一倍,流动性虽然增加,但是资金情绪也变得不太稳定。 不过整体资金的净流出减少,也代表资金持有者目前的左右徘徊的情绪,市场情绪上不稳定,需要等待情绪的引导。 而本周重点关注的市场情绪就是周二的生产者物价指数,以及周三的CPI数据,稍后我们一起关注一下宏观经济与消息面。 #BTC走势分析
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