2024.4.8 Cryptocurrency News
In the past few days, people, things, and events in the cryptocurrency circle have basically been centered around the Hong Kong WEB3 Conference. The bull market conference is lively. Various project parties, capital parties, exchanges, and self-media are all promoting themselves. After all, no one wants to miss the opportunity of this bull market and make a breakthrough in their business. The cryptocurrency circle should not have seen such a large-scale event for a long time since 2021. After Hong Kong, there will be another conference in Dubai. After these conferences, why do I have a sixth sense that a big one is coming, fast and big.
This week, there are more highlights in the macro aspect. First of all, the March CPI data was released on Wednesday, with the previous value of 3.2 and the expected value of 3.4. Inflation has rebounded. Last Friday's non-agricultural data has already shown that inflation is rebounding, but if it exceeds the previous value too much, that is, it is really announced to be greater than 3.5, then it is likely to continue to push the US dollar to strengthen, otherwise the big cake will fall, and if it is within 0.2% month-on-month, the expectation of a rate cut in June is likely to be reactivated. At present, the probability of an expected rate cut in June is only half. Then there will be a Fed monetary policy meeting minutes and speeches from officials this week. The interference of the external environment has indeed caused a lot of trouble to the market this month, which we cannot control. Even without these factors, I think April should be an adjustment month.
Restake is still a strong sector, eigenlayer TVL is already 12.7 billion US dollars, ethfi+puffer+renzo is also approaching 10 billion, and here we have to mention the pendle protocol, which is actually a re-staking track. It has risen more than 15 times from the bottom. The current TVL is also more than 400 million US dollars, but the circulating market value is only 600 million. Judging from the TVL alone, its market value is actually a bit low, so there should be opportunities to continue to grow in the future.
There are only 12 days left before the halving of the big cake. BCH has completed the halving. BSV will also halve before the big cake, and there are 5 days left.
Market Interpretation
The price of Bitcoin has not retreated. It has been sideways for two days over the weekend. The external interference factors this week are indeed relatively large. There is no need to bet on interference factors. From a structural perspective, it will continue to rise, but it may not break through new highs, because the monthly line looks a bit exaggerated, and going directly up will lead to divergence. The halving is imminent. For spot, if you are not sure, don't operate, but if you are given another chance to 60,000, you should buy at the bottom.
Since the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum's market capitalization accounted for only 16%, mainly because there is no good expectation for the follow-up. Those who hold it have gone to play with nesting dolls. It is unlikely that anyone will buy ETH for playing with nesting dolls. However, due to the expansion of the ecosystem, new things continue to appear, and the profit effect is high, so there are people who buy big cake to play with the ecosystem. There is no bearish view, and the linkage is the main focus.
CKB touched 0.032 yesterday, and it has risen more than 10 times from the bottom. However, the demand is indeed strong, but it is still necessary to be a little slow, and risk is still the first priority.
Today's panic greed index: 76 (greed)
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