To discuss this issue thoroughly, we need to have some theoretical foundation in international finance, geopolitics and political economics. In the course of the article, I will try to express it in simple language to make it easier for everyone to understand.

It was Qingming Festival recently, and I rarely had some free time. The number of friends and students visiting me increased recently, and I had basically no time to chat. In addition, I was busy contacting friends in the United States and preparing visa matters, so it was difficult for me to calm down and write articles.

Why is it that the Fed's interest rate hike is as powerful as a nuclear bomb, while other countries' power is much smaller? This has to start from the rise of the United States in World War I, World War II, the Princeton system, and now the new economic entities in the US stock market. Without talking about history, we can get straight to the point. The core is that global liquidity is weakening. Once the Fed raises interest rates, the global US dollar will flow back to the United States. The funds that were borrowed in the United States to invest in other countries will flow back to the United States. There are only a few types of investment, such as real estate, stocks, insurance and other financial products, manufacturing entities, service industries, etc. The easiest to withdraw funds are financial, and it is difficult for entities to withdraw immediately. I work in an American company. At the beginning, I was very puzzled. Why do they all rent DELL computers? The rent for a year is enough to buy one. The finance is also outsourced. Everything is rented. The actual money-making model is patent output, using Chinese resources to make Chinese money, eating the supply chain and patent costs in the middle. Everything is rented, and it is very likely that they are ready to withdraw at any time. At first, the financial settlement was one year, and now it is one quarter. If the risk is greater, it is estimated that it will be changed to one month. The global circulation rate of the US dollar is almost reaching 50%. Many countries with weak economies and unstable political situations basically use the US dollar as their national currency. High liquidity has determined the global universal status of the US dollar. As long as it moves, the world will tremble. The bull market in 2021 ended with the withdrawal of liquidity caused by the interest rate hike.

At a higher level, the United States maintains its hegemonic position through financial means, namely, the appreciation and depreciation of the US dollar, interest rate hikes and cuts, and the fluctuations in gold and oil prices. Control and plunder the world, and every change in liquidity will inevitably affect the fluctuations in the currency circle. Japan raised interest rates to end negative interest rates. According to common sense, the yen should appreciate, but it depreciated, and the US dollar appreciated instead. Combined with Japan's economy and the recent appreciation of the eurozone, it is very likely that it is in preparation for the future depreciation of the US dollar and the interest rate hike. The yen should gradually appreciate in the future to match the pace of the American big brother.

One thing is very clear, gold is rising in price, from 1900 to 2300, and it is possible to break through 2400. In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian war, gold has become the best safe-haven product. Governments of various countries are buying gold. The big dealer of gold is the United States, and the settlement and pricing system is also in its hands. Pushing up prices is to better harvest the world. In addition, the recent rise in oil prices will inevitably intensify future inflation. With the rise in oil prices, the prices of gasoline and industrial products will also rise, and naturally the CPI data will rise. Under such circumstances, it is impossible to cut interest rates in June, and it is very likely that there will be no interest rate cuts in September. Everyone may have a misunderstanding that the interest rate has been cut, the liquidity has improved, and the currency price has risen. It was not wrong originally, but there was a small detail in the middle that may have been overlooked. For a trillion-dollar fund, 0.25% is a huge amount of funds. When the interest rate cut begins, it will not release liquidity immediately, but tighten, and will repay the borrowed money and borrow it at a low interest rate! This action will lead to a weakening of short-term liquidity, which is an opportunity to enter the market.

The United States has been howling that the wolf is coming, and has given various expectations for interest rate cuts, but there is no cut! There is no expected cut in March, and I don’t think there will be a cut in June either. It’s like someone owes money to a friend, and says he will pay it back in March, but he didn’t. He says he will pay it back in June, but the probability of him paying it back is very small. If he can’t pay it back in June, can he pay it back in September?

Normally, BTC will go crazy before halving and will be a mess after halving. Let’s see if the situation can change with the support of ETF this time.