Bitcoin disk analysis:
Bitcoin is currently rebounding with support at 65,000, and the current strong support of 65,000 is temporarily valid.
By observing the daily trend of Bitcoin, we can basically see that within the 29-day operating cycle, the price of Bitcoin is only below 65,000 for 6 days, and most of the time it is above 65,000, either rising or falling. Stabilize and shock. Therefore, under the premise of 65,000 support, in addition to technical support, there is also support after the chips change hands.
At present, Bitcoin's rebound has temporarily broken through the resistance levels of the 1-hour Bollinger Band and the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline. The nearest resistance level above is near the daily Bollinger Band midline of 67,700. After the breakthrough, continue to look at the small resistance level near 70,000. Finally, It is the resistance of 72,550 on the daily line.
It should be noted that if the resistance level of 67,700 is successfully broken through, the price of Bitcoin will temporarily return to the upper Bollinger Band, which will be more advantageous for the price confidence of Bitcoin in the later period.
Of course, looking at the current situation of Bitcoin, many people think that it will fall if it does not rise. Of course, I also respect this view, so when a single Bitcoin falls below the support, let's take a look at the support below.
The first support is 65,000, which is short-term support and has strong support strength. This support is provided by the upper line of the monthly Bollinger Bands as the main support, the weekly EMA7 as auxiliary support, and the lower line of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands as auxiliary support. The weekly EMA7 has now moved up to around 65,500.
The second support, 62,500, is short-term support and the support is weak. This support is provided by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band. Once the price falls below the 65,000 support and market sentiment deteriorates, this support may only serve as a buffer zone.
The third support, 61,300, is short-term support and has the strongest support. This support is the technical support provided by the gold support of the Fibonacci retracement formed between the historical low and the highest level from 22 years to now. Secondly, the middle line of the 3-day Bollinger Band provides auxiliary support. The support strength is higher, but the pressure it faces is also greater. Once the price falls below the monthly support of 65,000 and falls below the daily Bollinger Band range, the current position may become a key position to support the rebound. Of course, we still have to analyze the trend in detail before the trend reaches the support.
My personal expectation is that the risk market has temporarily gotten rid of the negative sentiment caused by the Federal Reserve's delay in raising interest rates. Powell's speech in the early morning has once again strengthened expectations of an interest rate cut in 2024. What remains is when to cut interest rates and how many times. After Friday's big non-agricultural data is released, the risk market will usher in a certain emotional rebound.
The RSI relative strength index has rebounded to around 48, the sentiment is relatively central, and there will be no overbought callback sentiment in the short term.
Currently, Bitcoin is showing signs of rebound and U.S. stocks are opening higher. We will pay attention to changes in market data later.
LIVE
In the early morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell once again "painted the world". The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year, which can be regarded as adding confidence to the market. Again, because the data accompanied Powell's speech last week, it directly emboldened the risk market to "break down". Market expectations have even been lower than the government's interest rate cut expectations, which means that market sentiment is lower than we imagined.
Under this, Powell may not want the market to panic too much. After all, the active risk market will bring more water storage capacity for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, so Powell "paints the cake" to consolidate the market's interest rate cuts.
The Federal Reserve is determined to cut interest rates this year, but when and how many times it will be cut are yet to be determined.
As I said the day before yesterday, as long as the final result is not no interest rate cut this year, the market does not need to panic because of the negative data. Instead, it will start to rebound with confidence after the negative data comes out.
With the support of the speech, U.S. stocks closed higher in the early morning, with the Nasdaq and S&P closing up 0.23% and 0.11% respectively in the early morning.
In terms of technology stocks, Google, Apple, and Tesla have all closed higher. NVIDIA has fallen slightly at the closing stage and is currently making up for its gains before the market opens.
Micro strategy, coin stock price also closed with gains,
Because demand in the ETF market began to decline, BlackRock and Fidelity. Grayscale ark ETFs all closed lower, with BlackRock and ARK seeing slight after-hours gains.
The consolidation of expectations for an interest rate cut caused the U.S. dollar index to fall in the early morning, but it still remains at a high of 104. Although the interest rate cut is confirmed, the labor market is still strong in terms of data and expectations for Friday's employment data, and the U.S. dollar index also remains strong. status. At the current state, the U.S. index and U.S. stocks continue to remain strong, which may be the result Powell wants.
Fortunately, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally fell significantly after hitting a high this week.
However, due to expectations for Friday's employment data, the price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond still fell, and the yield also rebounded year-on-year.
The U.S. dollar is still rising against the RMB and the Japanese yen. This week, the U.S. dollar index is still more likely to rebound after the data is released on Friday.
The international gold market fell slightly after hitting 2,300 US dollars. The game in the gold market has just begun. The gold bull market did not have a harmonious ending.
International crude oil is currently quoted at $89.27. Although it has not effectively broken through $90, it still maintains a high level of stabilization and volatility. The sentiment in the crude oil market is still tense.
CME Bitcoin Futures Index is currently quoted at 66,660. After a day, the bullish sentiment in the futures market has slightly declined. Yesterday's positive premium was 400 points, and it is currently 200 points.
Bitcoin continues the oscillating trend of core support. According to the daily line, Bitcoin has been below 65,000 for only 6 days in the 29-day trend, and most of the time it is above 65,000, maintaining volatility, rising and waiting for turnover. The continuous turnover of single price inventory will be conducive to the stability of prices without bottoming out.
Bitcoin market analysis will be later.
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