April 3rd Crypto Options Volatility Research Report
After yesterday’s waterfall, will it continue to plummet this week?
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1. Core viewpoints:
1- Yesterday, the collar strategy of bulk option layout was suggested, and there may be a risk of continued decline in the short term.
2- Observing the Amaberdata options trading data, we can find that the put options have not been overbought. The overall put option has only increased by 3-5 Vols. Corresponding to the spot, the probability of a short-term large-scale decline exceeding 10% is not Not big
3-The underlying wave of the copycat option has not increased significantly, and it is not easy to short the volatility too much.
2. BTC\ETH\Sol
①In stock
On April 1, BTC ETF data showed a net outflow of 85 million. The overall net outflow was relatively moderate, but there have been multiple long liquidations in the past month.
Yesterday was a relatively obvious day for the market recently. It fell during the Asian session and has now reached around US$65,500. Therefore, the recent large fluctuations in the Asian market are something that options doomsday players need to pay attention to, and they need to deal with exposure risks more cautiously.
Sol also reached the integer mark of 180 US dollars, driven by the overall market decline.
②Option hidden wave
The implied volatility of BTC and ETH has not shown a significant rise compared with the bearish side. Currently, the two targets have only increased by 3-6 Vols from yesterday; and have only increased by 6-10 Vols from the past week.
Therefore, based on the precursor indicators of implied volatility, I personally infer subjectively that the probability of the BTC spot market in particular continuing to decline sharply in the short term is low.
If you are a player who is long on volatility, there is obviously no time to make a profit in the short term, so you can continue to wait.
I am personally cautious as to whether we can continue to deploy a long volatility strategy. The current hidden wave belongs to the normal water level of the bull market, and the profit-loss ratio of decision-making at this time is average.
Currently, the hidden wave of Sol continues to be the same as before, and is about 30 vol lower than the hidden wave of ATM at the previous high. Players who previously shorted volatility in the BIT option training camp have gained relatively large volatility gains in this wave.
③Bulk transactions
Yesterday, I issued a risk reversal strategy for BTC at the end of this month if it is a 1100 BTC block. Of course, I personally believe that the block is covered on the bullish side, so I interpret it as a collar strategy.
ETH needs to pay attention to the bear market spread strategy of 1900 positions and the risk reversal strategy of 1750 positions.
buy ETH-26APR24-3300-P + sell ETH-31MAY24-3100-P
buy ETH-26APR24-3000-P + sell ETH-26APR24-3300-C
Sol has no large transactions worth paying special attention to.
3. Copycat options
#TONThe hidden wave is near the median value of the hidden wave in the recent period. It makes sense to go short or long on volatility.
#DogeThe sharp fall in spot prices has not led to an increase in implied volatility
If several copycat option targets have not been deployed in the early stage, it is also a window period for layout. Of course, this is also under the condition that the overall market is stable.
4. Macro market
US stocks:
The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has attracted widespread attention recently. It has not hit a new low recently. The core pressure area I mentioned in the article "Current Major Asset Allocation" last May is still valid. The core is the 7.5 mark. We must focus on this year. Rather than around the current 7.2-7.3. It’s also not easy to worry too much.
In addition, the recent RV and IV in the U.S. bond market have risen again, and players who are optimistic about the long term are suitable for layout. We also shared the options trading strategy of#TMFin a small group
A shares:
Can the narrative driven by a new round of PMI rise? At present, my personal subjective judgment is inconclusive, and my emotions are not enthusiastic enough.
It is better to sit and wait, as the position will not be overweight.
Finally, if you want to learn more about 3 market option strategies, please join "Sober Chat Options Planet"
