July 12 Crypto Options Market Research Report

CPI is better than expected, US stocks continue to hit ATH, why did BTC rise and fall?

I. Core Views

1- As expected in yesterday's daily report, CPI data is better than expected, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is becoming clearer and clearer. At present, the interest rate cut in September is expected, and MSTR closed up 4%.

2- From the macro perspective of US politics, Trump is leading the election. Political events are good for cryptocurrencies and cannot be ignored. Pay attention to the Bitcoin Conference and new crypto money pouring in.

3- ETH's ETF event is approaching the opening, and ATM and 25D call continue to decline. It is likely to follow the volatility trend shared in this week's video. Let's see if the opening exceeds expectations.

4- Ordi covered call strategy:

The cottage option Sol has a small decline of about 5 vols. Ordi's implicit volatility has always been the only one. At present, the focus is on the covered call strategy of 30D put, which will be put into the weekly real market later. (As shown below)

Summary: As long as there is no black swan in the US stock market during the interest rate cut cycle, it is only a matter of time before the inflow of cryptocurrencies flows in. Be patient and wait, and don't look at the trend of Bitcoin in the next one or two days.

2. Options bulk

Yesterday, the largest bulk of BTC was long call spread (relatively heavy odds)

sell BTC-27DEC24-120000-C + buy BTC-27DEC24-85000-C

ETH's largest position yesterday was 3,000, short call spread (belongs to the strategy of selling ETF news)

sell ETH-19JUL24-3450-C + buy ETH-19JUL24-3800-C

SOL has no obvious guiding significance

3. Macro market

US stocks:

Previous research reports asked everyone to pay attention to small-cap stocks. Yesterday, Russell 2000 broke through the long-term downward trend of two years; crypto-related stocks are very strong. It can be observed that funds are gradually eliminating the concentration risk. The trading method of US stock asset management companies is the idea of ​​big ships. They will not enter and exit quickly. The overall positive effect on encryption needs time to be released. Let's wait and see.

In addition, the planet reminds me to sell Tesla not because I am not optimistic, but because it is overheated in the short term. In the long term, it is still a 10-fold target. TLT\TMF\DPST, which entered at the right time, benefited from a wave of rises in the expectation of interest rate cuts. Subjective judgment of US bonds is just the appetizer at the beginning, hold it.

A shares:

Yesterday after the market, the ZC suspended the transfer and financing and increased the margin rate of securities lending to 100%/120%, directly targeting quantitative strategies. Because there was no beta market, the DMA was restricted at the beginning of the year, and then the nine national regulations were introduced. Yesterday, the general rise was led by the small and medium-sized enterprises represented by the CSI 2000.