The most uncomfortable thing today is that the cold is almost healed, and the price of the currency has plummeted. Bitcoin fell 5,000 points during the day, and the altcoins fell more than 6 points. As of the evening, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above 66,000 points. From the fundamentals of the market, the altcoins' market crash has reached a very deep and difficult-to-shake position. The closing of Bitcoin tomorrow morning is particularly important.

The most worrying thing about the market is this kind of unexplained decline. Today, I made two pictures and posted them on the planet to explain the general situation. Judging from the current on-chain data, in the case of a short-term decline of more than 5,000 points, earlier investors have almost no signs of leaving the market, including Sanshu’s early fixed investment positions below 28,000 points, and there is almost no psychological fluctuation at this position.

The large-scale addresses with holding costs between 66,000 points and 69,000 points have a significant increase in currency holdings during the day, and the remaining main holding addresses currently have no obvious signs of changing hands. The smashing occurred during the day, and judging from the trading habits, it was not the product of Wall Street institutions. In short, Sanshu believes that if the above-mentioned profit margins and addresses of large players do not change, the chip movement of a large number of short-term players will have a very limited impact on the macroeconomic changes in the market.

Yesterday, the ETF had a net outflow of 85 million US dollars, and the largest outflow was still Grayscale GBTC, and the buying of other institutions such as BlackRock remained strong. Another thing that needs attention is the surge in short-term contract holdings. The contract trading volume in the 24 hours before the market crash increased by 96.39% compared with the previous day, reaching a historical high. After the market crash, the entire network liquidated nearly 500 million US dollars in 24 hours, and 150,000 positions were liquidated, of which long positions accounted for 87%. The intention of this wave of market is relatively obvious.

From the technical point of view, Sanshu's view is that the market fluctuates widely, and the monthly line is bearish this month. The market was caught off guard and fell. The strong support was 68,500 points. Basically, this wave did not work and directly broke through the 66,000 point position. Under the linkage of the market, Uncle San, like everyone else, quite a few of the new layout positions are in a locked state, and some of them are the ones that made early profits by dozens of points.

Emotionally, I will not panic too much about the market at present. Even if I am trapped in the short term, I still believe that 73777 will not be the highest point of the pie in this bull market. Washing is a necessary process in the bull market. Moreover, with the support of ETFs, the probability of a black swan event has been reduced to the limit. As long as the contract market is not touched, every round of plunge is an opportunity to enter a new round.

In the evening, Sanshu observed the current on-chain data. As of 3 p.m., the market was mainly liquidating ETH's currency-based large-amount leveraged transactions. Only in the evening did large-scale currency-based leveraged positions begin to be liquidated, and the liquidation intensity was successively reduce. As for whether many partners asked during the day whether this wave will hit the low of 55,000 points, Sanshu took a very clear negative attitude.

As for the ups and downs of the market, without any advance notice of external factors, we can only use the post-event on-chain data to review the market, figure out the intentions of the main force, and then conduct a new stage of market discussion based on the current external macro environment. The washout before the halving has always been a cognitive event. For us, it is nothing more than issues such as depth, time, and sustainability. Every round of market demonstrations in history tells us that the depth of adjustment before the halving is about 20%, the cycle is short, and the speed is fast. The purpose is to reduce the burden so that a new market can start after the halving.

What is different about this round is that most people think that the previous decline has been adjusted. Of course, the market has come down, so regarding the operation of bargain hunting after the downward trend, the last 10% of the warehouse that was previously reserved will be entered after the pie breaks 65,000 points, and no operations will be performed thereafter.

The core reason why it is said that the depth of the decline will not reach a position as scary as 55,000 points is that the bottoming cost position of this round of ETF institutions is near this position. If it falls below, it means that the short-term daily double top of the market is established. The start of a long-term downward washout that lasts for more than a month is more likely to mean the early end of the bull market. Before the pie is about to be halved and the Fed has not yet started to raise interest rates, the probability of this happening is approximately zero.

Therefore, we don’t need to worry too much about macro factors for the time being. ETF buying and selling is always stable. In terms of market data and negative pressure, what needs to be paid attention to or worried about is the pin to stop the decline. Where can it reach? The extreme judgment of the third uncle of the market fundamentals is to insert the pin downward on the premise that the line cannot be closed back above 66,000 points in the short term. It breaks 63,000 points, and then the range oscillates to bottom within the range of 61,500 points to 65,000 points, forming a big surge after the double bottom support is halved.

Let the bullets fly. A sharp drop means that a change is imminent. Looking back on the past, it is common to pull back within one day after falling for many days. With the news of a few large Bitcoin liquidations, the price has fallen into place.

BTC: The logic of the big pie has been mentioned a lot. The washout and repair after this sharp decline will take some time. The summary above is that if the price falls below 65,000 points again in the evening, Uncle San will sell out the remaining 10% of his chips and stop moving. The range of wide fluctuations moves downward, and the extreme market should close within the range of 61,500 points to 63,000 points, and the bottom range should be within the range of 61,500 points to 65,000 points. There is a unified consensus in the market, including institutions, that the bull market has not reached its peak.

ETH: Ethereum positions have always been relatively moderate, and there are many main players buying Ether at the lows on the chain during the day. From an indicator point of view, the time period for Ether to lead the market in the second stage will be delayed. Currently, the positions of bullish interest rates have suddenly increased, and there is no trend of rapid slowdown in ETF funds. However, the optimistic sentiment of Ether in the medium and long term has gradually increased, falling below 3200. Uncle Dian San will consider twice the leverage for long-term planning.

Others: The 36-hour risk period will continue to be effective, and the market will be clear after tomorrow. The top of the copycat part remains unchanged, and the decline is basically the same. You can just enter and exit according to your own situation. If you still have a profit, you can exit and make up for it in stages.

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot stocks! ​​​#Meme #大盘走势 #BTC $BTC