Bitcoin disk analysis:
After rebounding in the early morning and encountering resistance levels, Bitcoin fell again, falling directly below yesterday's first and second supports, and is currently testing the third support. We also said yesterday that the first support fell below, and the price entered the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band. There is a risk of continued decline in the short term, and the extent of the decline can be seen around 62,000.
But optimistically, after falling below the first support of 68,000, there is still support from the monthly line, which is the support near 65,000. At the same time, this support is also the strongest support in the near future. The support is currently being tested for strength.
Let’s look at the rebound resistance level first. The first resistance level is 68,000, which was yesterday’s first support level and is the key support for the daily trend. Now comes the key resistance level. The second resistance level is near 73,000. This resistance comes from the limit of the daily Bollinger Bands.
The strongest short-term resistance level comes from the resistance brought by the weekly line near 74,000.
Of course, what many people are now concerned about is not the resistance level, but the price drop of Bitcoin. Since it has fallen below the daily trend, where is the short-term support? How much room for decline is there?
The first support, 65,000, is short-term support with strong support strength. This support is provided by the weekly EMA7 and the monthly Bollinger Bands. The technical support provided by the large-level time line is strong.
The second support, 62,700, is short-term support. The support is weak. This support is provided by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Bands to provide effective support. The relative support strength is weak.
The third support, 61,300, is short-term support and has the strongest support. This support is effectively supported by the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the 3-day line level and the golden section of the Fibonacci retracement level between the lowest and highest levels in history since 22 years ago. . Especially for the latter, callbacks in an upward trend and the golden section of Fibonacci retracements often form an effective support data.
However, from a technical point of view, we can emotionally understand that once it falls below the first support near 65,000, the bottom will lose real effective support in the short term. Until the strongest support is near 61,300, there is still room for a 3,700-point decline. Therefore, the first support may be more critical at present.
When the price of Bitcoin fell below yesterday's first daily support line today, the price of Bitcoin reached the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band. Running at the current position, it may have to withstand greater selling pressure.If there is no support of 65,000, the risk of Bitcoin falling to around 62,000 in the short term is already very high. Now the short-term pressure has given today the first support. If this support breaks, then Bitcoin will fall back to the monthly Bollinger Band, and there will be more room for decline. increase, the subsequent rebound will face this strong resistance point.
And the monthly resistance point may be stronger than the weekly resistance point.
At present, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the Bollinger Band trend in 1 hour and 4 hours, but there is an obvious Bollinger Band divergence in 4 hours.
Combined with the fact that the RSI relative strength expenditure has fallen below 40, if there is no continued negative sentiment guidance, there will be a high probability of an oversold rebound sentiment at the current support position.
The recent continued sluggish market sentiment, due to the expectation that interest rates will not be cut for the time being, has made the U.S. stock market weak. Market sentiment and market funds have begun to be suppressed due to the actions of the Federal Reserve and the emotional tension in the financial market. The mood is relatively pessimistic, and the risk market is Risk aversion is also increasing. But we still have to rely on data to speak.
When we analyzed the data yesterday, we said that this week, as the first week of April, the overall market data and sentiment will be optimistic as long as it slowly improves.
Today we see that although Bitcoin has fallen, many tokens in the copycat market have begun to rebound strongly. The decline of Bitcoin has released more funds. Will this trigger a wave of copycat craze?
Later comes crypto market data analysis.
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The expectation that the Fed's interest rate cut will not come so soon led to a large-scale sell-off of US bonds on Monday, which triggered a large-scale chain sell-off of global bonds today. At the same time, the release of JOLTs data tonight will directly open the advance expectation of this week's non-agricultural data.
Yesterday I also expressed my point of view that this week's employment data is likely to confirm Powell's remarks last week that he would not raise interest rates for the time being. At present, the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year has been reduced, and it is expected to be no more than 3 times. If this expectation is confirmed, then the interest rate cut is likely to occur at the end of the third quarter or even the beginning of the fourth quarter.
US stocks rose and fell last night, because the rise in crude oil prices led to better profitability of many energy companies. The Nasdaq closed up last night, while the S&P, a major sector of technology stocks, closed down.
Nvidia and Google closed slightly higher, while Apple, Tesla and other stocks closed down.
Micro Strategy and Coin's stock prices closed down due to the recent weakness of Bitcoin.
In the Asian market, the Nikkei index rose slightly, and although the A-share market rose on Monday due to the positive effects of QE, it still fell today and then rebounded in the afternoon.
On the other hand, the Hang Seng Index performed well today and closed up.
Needless to say, the ETF market closed down collectively.
The US dollar index continues to remain strong. Although it fell below 105, the decline is not obvious and there are signs of rebound at any time. Affected by this, the US dollar against the yen and the RMB continued to strengthen.
The yen against the RMB fell slightly. The specific reason is that the village policy regulation has enhanced the stability of the RMB exchange rate.
After the US Treasury bonds were sold off, the current yield increased by 2.2 basis points again, a small increase.
Although the US Treasury bonds are currently being sold off and funds are flowing into the gold market, the increase in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield has also increased traders' assessment of the risk market and directly suppressed the trading sentiment in the risk market.
The current international gold price is $2,260 per ounce. Risk aversion, central banks' increasing gold reserves, and hedging of capital risks caused by the dollar crisis have all pushed the price of gold to break through historical highs. Although the rise in gold prices will excite investors, the rise in gold prices also means that the current economic and financial situation is not so optimistic.International crude oil has touched around US$90 and is currently quoted at US$89. The core incentive for the rise in crude oil prices is the instability of the geopolitical situation, followed by OPEC energy production restrictions. The potential threat of energy crisis also exists,
The CME Bitcoin Futures Index is currently quoted at 66,625, basically maintaining a small positive premium to the spot price, and the bullish sentiment in the futures market has weakened.
Bitcoin fell below the support and reached the third key core support. Panic about the decline is spreading. Will it continue to fall? Let's look at Bitcoin's market analysis later.
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