The April halving month is coming soon. When will the copycat season arrive? How do we play next?
This bullish turn has obviously reached the bottom of 60770. The short-term upward pressure is in the 72668-73788 range. Once it completely breaks through and does not fall below the 73788 position, it will go up to 81000 and then seek the daily limit. The short-term downward support level is in the 68000-67100 range
Let’s talk about the market situation of Inscription. April belongs to Inscription. It can be seen from the recent performance of Ordi that it has always wanted to perform, and major Inscriptions have also chosen April to go online.
ordi: The price of Audi 75 is just a Fibonacci technical resistance level. It is expected that it will not take long for breakthroughs to continue. Just looking at the triangle itself in the picture above, after the breakthrough, you can see the price around 84. More importantly, Ordi has been fluctuating widely for more than 4 months since it shot higher in December last year. Regardless of the time of the shock, Still the amplitude is enough. I mentioned my opinion about Ordi before, thinking that 50 can only be achieved by inserting pins. It is a very good buying position when it falls to around 61
In fact, judging from the 3D level K-line, the closing lines remain above 61, and the lowest pin drops to around 55. Pay ⑥qun嶶: 417072555 As long as the leverage is not applied, the spot price at the low level will give enough time to buy.
The top of Ordi's exchange rate appeared on January 2, and Ordi also reached a high of 92 on the same day, so January 2 was regarded as the end of a wave of rising prices. The exchange rate reached lows on March 19 and March 28, forming an obvious double-bottom structure, and has completed the breakthrough of the double-bottom. Therefore, it can be considered that the lowest point on March 28 is the beginning of a new round of market conditions. Real Ordi price reached lowest on March 19
Based on the judgment at the above time point, Ordi has completed a complete five-wave rise. Combined with the previously mentioned triangle breakthrough and the double-bottom structural breakthrough of the exchange rate, Ordi has probably completed its 2-wave correction and a new rise has begun.
When does copycat season come?
It’s not BTC’s return percentage that triggers “cot season,” but its wealth effect. Bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown by $941 billion since September 2023, approaching $1 trillion, and most altcoins are relatively small and don’t require much wealth within them to significantly increase their prices. Currently, the market cap of altcoins as a whole, excluding ETH and major stablecoins, is $588 billion
What we need to pay close attention to is the inflow/outflow of CEX. Inflows to the three most popular CEXs since January 11:
OKX - $1 billion in inflows Robinhood - $263 million in inflows Binance - $247 million in inflows
Meanwhile, cumulative inflows into ETFs have reached more than $10 billion. It’s clear that ETFs are the new preferred way to buy and hold Bitcoin
Altcoins, on the other hand, do not have ETFs. First CEX, then DeFi, these are the two ways to get altcoins
Increased inflows into CEX = investors looking to buy altcoins, not. Simply put, this cycle adds one more step to the market. We go from CEXs → DEXs to ETFs → CEXs → DEXs, and this additional step will result in hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into CEXs. We just need some patience.
Where are we heading? If we have the same pattern as the last cycle, we will see altcoins (excluding BTC - ETH - USDT - USDC - DAI) having a market share of around 38% at the peak
With an overall cryptocurrency market capitalization of $7.8 trillion, altcoin market capitalization will be approximately $2.96 trillion, or 5.1 times the current value
The final phase will come when inflows into CEXs/DeFi equal or exceed those in ETFs
Next, let’s talk about the trend after the halving. How should we do it?
This round, I think the top of the pie is likely to be over 120,000 dollars, so I think if the pie exceeds 120,000 dollars, we need to consider the issue of batch shipment cycles to escape the top. More than 150,000 dollars is the maximum limit I think this round, and it is also the maximum value I know this round.
Regarding Ethereum in the long term, I conservatively believe that shipments of more than 10,000 u in batches and daily limits of more than 12,000 u can be cleared and waited for the bear market.
"When it's a bull market, everyone will buy it. If you can make a profit by buying it, who won't buy it? The most important thing in the bull market is selling. How to ensure that you sell, lock in profits, and be safe. Because the more you earn, the less you earn. In the end, they all made money.
