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This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:
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Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; Elk will not get lost @crypto_elk_; Foreign Exchange Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
This week in review
This week from March 4 to March 11, Bingtang Orange’s highest price was around $69,999 and its lowest price was close to $59,005, with a fluctuation range of around 18.62%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large number of chips traded near about 65,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
analyze:
54000–58000 approximately 370,000 pieces;
49000–53000 approximately 480,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 51,000~53,000 in the short term is 90%;
Among them, the probability that it will not rise above 68,000 to 71,000 in the short term is 42%.
Important news
economic news
Nonfarm employment in February was 275,000, higher than the expected value of 200,000 and lower than the previous value of 353,000.
The unemployment rate in February was 3.9%, higher than the expected value of 3.70% and higher than the previous value of 3.70%.
After the employment data was released, the swap market was fully pricing in a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.
The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision, keeping it unchanged at 4% and lowering its inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 to 2.3% and 2.0%.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that demand is expected to be stronger and financial conditions will be further relaxed in the future.
Powell said at a House of Representatives hearing: "Although inflation is still above 2%, it has eased significantly; we do not seek to lower interest rates until inflation reaches 2%; if the economy develops as we hope, interest rates will need to fall significantly in the next few years."
Encrypted ecological news
Rostin Behnam, director of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said his agency is “confident” that a crypto regulatory framework can be established within 12 months if Congress passes the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act.
The total value of positions in El Salvador rose to US$159 million, with a profit of US$53.82 million.
The market value of the DeFi sector has exceeded US$110 billion.
The Uniswap Foundation’s proposal to change the Uniswap community governance, which includes rewards for users who delegate and stake UNI tokens, has passed the temperature check vote and is now entering on-chain voting.
Kaiko said that BTC trading volume exceeded $46 billion yesterday, reaching the highest level since 2021.
The total market value of BTC ETF reached US$54.593 billion, BlackRock's IBIT asset management scale reached US$11.475 billion, and Fidelity's FBTC asset management scale reached US$7.034 billion.
BlackRock applied to the SEC to add spot BTC ETF exposure to its Global Allocation Fund. BlackRock has applied to add BTC ETF exposure to its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently at, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the emergence of some directions and the possibility of certain events occurring under certain conditions
long term insights
Total spot selling pressure on the chain
Add new chips and destroy selling chips on the chain
(The figure below shows the total spot selling pressure on the chain)
The total spot selling pressure on the chain has entered a high stage.
At this stage, more new forces are generally needed to support the pressure.
ETF is a new force now, and we need to continue to pay attention to the status of ETF in the future.
Judging from the overall historical record of selling pressure, the bull market has entered the second half from this perspective.
(The picture below shows the addition of new chips and the destruction of selling chips on the chain)
The new chips on the chain began to slowly increase again.
This means that the supporting force of the market has appeared again.
There may be pressure up and down near new highs to digest the selling pressure.
The strength of the market's digestion of selling pressure mainly depends on the strength of the U.S. stock market during market hours.
mid-term exploration
Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio Interval Status
Chip distribution - short-term, long-term structure
Short term player profit percentage compounding model
(The picture below shows the status of the unrealized profit and loss ratio range)
This model is used to evaluate the basic emotional state of users in the venue and determine the current profit and loss ratio in the venue from the perspective of unrealized profit and loss ratio.
Currently, the market is in a feverish stage, and the overall market has entered a relatively fanatical state.
The market continues to maintain a state of high profitability/excessive profitability. It may be that the overall profitability needs stronger new funds to promote it.
(The picture below shows chip distribution - short-term and long-term structure)
More than 95% of the nearby price levels are short-term chips, which means that the market has entered a rhythm in which short-term participants widely participate in the market.
In this state, the fluctuation range of the market may be larger because short-term participants are more concerned about costs.
(The figure below shows the short-term participant profit percentage compound model)
Large groups with weak liquidity are currently in a state of increasing their holdings. What needs to be cautious is that the intensity of short-term participants' holdings has weakened slightly.
There may be more significant performance during the U.S. trading period.
short term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer amount
Add new addresses and active addresses
Bingtang Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntai exchange net position
High weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is high.
(The figure below shows the risk coefficient of derivatives)
Last week, the market still showed continuous short squeezes. A large number of derivatives were liquidated, and the liquidation volume reached bull market levels. The current risk coefficient is still in the dangerous zone, and it is very easy to form a situation of double explosion of longs and shorts or a continuous short squeeze.
(The chart below shows the option transaction ratio)
The bearish protection ratio levels remain elevated. Options trading volume fell slightly.
(The figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at low levels after the market short squeeze, and low levels mean that another change is close to happening.
(Figure below: option implied volatility)
Implied volatility has increased slightly in the short term.
Emotional state rating: FOMO
(The figure below shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Last week it was mentioned that the short-term holder cost was 46K, and this week it has reached around 50K. The cost of short-term holders has been rising rapidly at a rate of 4K per week for three consecutive weeks. Market sentiment indicators also continued to reach new highs, and market sentiment continued to be FOMO.
(The picture below shows the new address and active address)
New and active addresses are at mid-range levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure ratings: The overall situation is a massive outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
The big pie is currently in a state of accumulation of massive outflows, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.
(The figure below shows the net position of the E-Pacific Exchange)
There has been a large inflow of Erbian this week, and roughly half of the amount has been digested. Overall, there is still a continued accumulation of outflows.
(The picture below shows high weight selling pressure)
After the price continued to rise, there was a high-weight selling pressure, which has now eased.
Purchasing Power Rating: Compared with last week’s global purchasing power was flat and in a strong state, the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
(Figure below shows the status of global purchasing power)
Global purchasing power continues to be strong this week, with the purchasing power of the Americas declining slightly, but the purchasing power of Asia and Europe continuing to increase. Overall, it was the same as last week.
(Figure below: USDT exchange net position)
The overall net position of USDT exchanges increased significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 72,000.
(Coinbase off-chain data in the picture below)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 61,000 and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 72000, and 74000.
(Figure below: Binance off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60000, 62000, and 66000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70000, 71000, 72000, and 74000.
(Picture below: Bitfinex off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at prices near 60,000 and 64,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices near 70,000.
This week’s summary:
News summary:
Powell's attitude has softened, the market has become more dovish, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has become greater.
At present, international capital and risk markets, such as US stocks, crypto assets and even gold prices, will place more expectations on the results when macro funds are transferred, so there is still room for growth.
In the long term, the total funds used to allocate gold will be approximately 3.2 trillion US dollars. In the long term, there is still a lot of crypto space. Although it is not as exaggerated as the media highlights.
When capital is allocated, the market will fluctuate violently. Although the bull market in the international capital market (U.S. stocks) may last for one year, two years or even longer in the future, the biggest increase will be when the early expectations have just been converted.
Long-term insights on the chain:
The total spot selling pressure on the chain has entered a high stage;
The number of new chips on the chain has begun to increase, adding further support to the market.
Market setting the tone:
Judging from the level of historical selling pressure, we have entered the second half of the market, and we need to pay attention to more new forces next.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The unrealized profit and loss status shows that the market has entered a feverish stage;
Currently, 95% of them are short-term chips;
The accumulation status of short-term players has weakened slightly.
Market setting the tone:
Fanaticism, risk control
The market has entered a feverish stage, so take appropriate risk control measures.
Short-term observations on the chain:
The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is high.
The number of new active addresses is relatively at the mid-range level.
Market Sentiment State Rating: FOMO.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow and accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
Compared with last week, when global purchasing power was flat and in a strong state, the purchasing power of stablecoins has increased significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at the price of 72,000.
The probability of not falling below 51,000~53,000 in the short term is 90%; the probability of not falling below 68,000~71,000 in the short term is 42%.
Market setting the tone:
The overall market performance is still strong, and the cost of short-term holders has risen rapidly and has reached around 50K. This week, the risk of large downward market fluctuations is still expected to be extremely low, and there may be two-way liquidation of derivatives or a sustained short squeeze.
