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Weekly Review
This week, from September 23 to September 30, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $66,498 and the lowest was close to $62,538, with a fluctuation range of about 6.33%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 62,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.76 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.02 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
The annual rate of the PCE price index in August was 2.2%, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.50%.
The core PCE price index in August was 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations of 2.70% and higher than the previous value of 2.60%.
The final expected value of the one-year inflation rate in September was 2.7%, the same as the previous value.
The latest inflation data showed that the U.S. core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.1% in August, the lowest since May, and the market expected 0.2%;
The monthly rate of personal spending in August was 0.2%, the lowest since April, and the market expectation was 0.30%.
Powell has said, “Upside risks to inflation have indeed declined, and downside risks to employment have increased;
Fed Governor Waller estimated that the core PCE annualized rate over the past four months would be below 1.8%, below the Fed's 2% target.
Economist Stephanie Roth said: If the US unemployment rate rises to 4.3% (currently 4.2%), the Federal Reserve may choose to cut interest rates more significantly. The basic expectation is that the Federal Reserve will at least cut it to 3% (even before the end of 2025).
Hedge fund legend David Tepper: The Federal Reserve must cut interest rates at least two or three more times to maintain its credibility.
Goldman Sachs' chief financial officer said that the substantial interest rate cut is a clear sign of the new direction, a soft landing seems to be the consensus, and a 50 basis point interest rate cut is seen as an important turning point in monetary policy, bringing a new wave of optimism about the economic trajectory.
Encrypted ecological news
Keyrock research shows that 88% of the tokens that were airdropped when they were issued this year have seen a drop in price, with most plummeting within 15 days. Three months later, few tokens have been able to produce positive results, and only a few have been able to buck the trend. Projects with excessively high FDV (fully diluted market capitalization) typically find it difficult to maintain momentum as the expected upside becomes limited.
Lookonchain said that ETH destruction increased by 163% month-on-month in the past week. Before the ETH price increase in January and October 2023, there were surges in daily ETH destruction.
10x Research analyzed that if the $65,000 level is broken, it will mean a reversal of the downward trend, and a new high may be set in the fourth quarter. The medium-term reversal indicator has been fully corrected, indicating that the downward trend may have ended.
According to Lookonchain data, BlackRock has increased its holdings by 4,460 BTC in the past two days, and its total holdings have reached 362,192 BTC, worth approximately US$22.9 billion.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
High quality selling pressure
Short-term participant costs
US purchasing power
Staged stock top
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
Judging from the performance of high-weight participants, there has not been much selling.
This eliminates a major hidden danger for the market.
(Figure below shows short-term participant costs)
The cost of short-term participants is rising and is gradually approaching around 63,000. There may be a psychological rivet range near the price. From the perspective of behavioral finance, it may be a temporary support.
(The picture below shows the purchasing power of the US market)
Buying power in the US market has resumed, which means that participants in the US time zone have seen a significant shift in their purchases compared to previous weeks, and larger purchases have occurred in the most recent week.
(The figure below shows the top of the staged inventory)
The stage inventory top shows that the price is about 70,000; this means that at this price, long-term participants may be willing or possible to sell, but it is not the top of the long cycle, it may be a stage.
So you need to pay attention to risks and market pressure in this area.
Mid-term exploration
Short-term profit percentage compounding model
Whale comprehensive scoring model
Stablecoin supply net position
Total selling pressure on the chain
(The figure below shows the short-term profit percentage compound model)
Green area: short-term high-ratio profit area
Red area: short-term high loss ratio area
Blue line: accumulation coefficient
Yellow line: Short-term supply
This model explores the short-term profitability ratio from the perspective of supply.
It is not at an extreme point at present. It is possible that short-term chips are generating high selling pressure, or active supply has not occurred.
The short-term supply and accumulation coefficient in the market have stagnated slightly, but are still on an upward trend.
The market may face a certain degree of suspension or adjustment.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)
There are signs that the whales are slowing down their pace of entry.
(Figure below shows the net position of stablecoin supply)
The current supply of stablecoins is still increasing, and the market may tend to be in a stage of accumulation or building up momentum.
As purchasing power continues to rise, there may not be a decline in capital sentiment in the market.
(Figure below shows the total selling pressure of spot on the chain)
There was no excessive selling pressure on the chain during this rise.
There are no signs of large transactions that may be close to those in January-March 2024.
At present, participants may be more cautious and patient.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
This week is basically the same as last week. After the short squeeze, the risk factor has returned to the red zone again. Judging from the risk factor alone, BTC may consolidate at the current price, which is also the cost line of short-term holders, before continuing to the next market.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume decreased slightly, and the proportion of put options increased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives volumes returned to the bottom area after the market squeeze.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility has not changed much.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to strong
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The market sentiment this week was basically the same as that of last week. While the market was short squeezed, the market's positive sentiment (blue line) reached a short-term extreme, and panic sentiment (orange line) did not lead to selling due to unwinding.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
Newly added and active addresses are at medium-high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has moderate outflow, ETH has moderate inflow accumulation.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
Medium amount of BTC outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
ETH has a medium inflow accumulation.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
Purchasing power in America stopped losing power and continued to recover slightly this week.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions rebounded slightly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
This week’s summary:
WTR public real trading section:
Starting from February 2024, the actual status of funds will be disclosed on a regular basis every month.
Strategy: prudent strategy.
Initial capital amount: US$240,000.
Current funding: US$258,000.
Yield: 7.5%
The drawdown of a new account with $120,000 opened in July was 2%.
The total funds are US$431,000.
Summary of news:
Starting from last Thursday night, members of the Federal Reserve have been speaking together, and the market has been pricing in the extent of this year's interest rate cuts. The dovish signals have further paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates.
The biggest impact of interest rate cuts on the market is the reserves of money funds. Shaking the reserves of money funds and flowing them from the original pool to the pool of other risky assets will be real money. The spring of risky assets has arrived.
Normally, bull and bear markets come from market confidence. When market confidence is insufficient, it is often difficult to fall. Currently, market confidence comes from the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts.
Judging from the overall attitude, Wall Street and the Federal Reserve are very eager to implement continuous interest rate cuts as soon as possible. There will be a large room for interest rate cuts from the end of this year to next year, which may be larger than expected.
Fundamentally speaking, the current interest rate given by the Federal Reserve is not enough to shake the money market. When the interest rate cuts continue to accelerate, it will shake the money market, and there will be a second round of large funds flowing in.
On-chain long-term insights:
The high-weight selling pressure has not changed much, but is still decreasing, eliminating a major hidden danger in the market;
Short-term holder costs show that prices are gradually climbing to around 63,000, which may be a psychological rivet support for the market;
The purchasing power of the US market has changed significantly this week, generating a large positive premium effect;
The top of the short- to medium-term inventory is around 70,000. Pay attention to the risks and variables of prices near this level.
Market setting:
The market is recovering.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
There is some stagnation in the buyer group;
The giant whale slowed down;
Purchasing power continues to gather strength;
The pressure on the chain is low, and there are no signs of large transactions.
Market setting:
Suspension
The current market may be slowing down, but the market is still gathering strength.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is near the red area and the risk is increasing.
The number of newly added active addresses is at a medium-high level.
Market sentiment status rating: neutral to bullish.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a moderate outflow of BTC and a moderate inflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is recovering slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is also recovering slightly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
Overall, the positive sentiment in the market continues to recover slightly, and purchasing power also continues to recover slightly. Even if the short-term market adjusts, it is difficult to fall below the short-term holder cost line (63K). The overall market is neutral and bullish. The next market may need an opportunity.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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