Today's market is as we expected, the US stock market outperformed the Hong Kong stock market and the A+BTC. Yesterday's US economic data was very unsatisfactory, especially the GDP in the first quarter. The expected 2.0 turned out to be only 1.1%. Some people wonder why the GDP fell but rose instead? Because now the US stock market is a puppet of monetary policy. When GDP fell, everyone expected the interest rate hike to end early, and it rose after the money was released. Isn't it magical? Therefore, the stock market has always been speculating on expectations, GDP is reality, and monetary policy is expectation. Mosaic was calm, with a mild and slow bull market for a day. The market volatility also fell again. The DVOL of BTC and ETH were actually the same, which is very cute. It is expected that the volatility in May will continue to narrow, and the market will give BTC option sellers rich profits. At the same time, ETH recommends buyers to be the main
Hong Kong stocks and A-shares continued to rise slightly in a rare small range, which gave everyone some blood back. But this rebound obviously cannot give much confidence in the future market. Although everyone has a certain illusion that the economy is recovering, judging from the current efficiency of money release and consumption, there is no possibility of a bull market in Q2. (The probability of a big drop does not seem high at present, and Q2 did ease some liquidity.) It can only be said that buying anything at this stage may be wrong, but there is nothing wrong with not buying anything and holding on to financial management. Retail investors can choose some relatively high-dividend companies with development potential (note, stay away from highly leveraged businesses such as banks. The profits of these companies are fake money. They make 10 billion, distribute 5 billion in dividends, and then go to the market to raise 15 billion...)
Let me continue with the market. As you all know, I have been doing volatility trading in recent years. Many people will wonder why volatility trading is profitable?
Profits are always accompanied by risks. The most important point is that fluctuations can cause huge damage to wealth.
Many Asians cannot intuitively understand this sentence, because East Asians are born with a strong gambling nature and believe in "Are kings, princes, generals, and ministers born with the same blood?" and "At worst, you can start over again."
Therefore, there is a natural lack of sensitivity to the inheritance and continuation of wealth.
There is a classic saying, “You can never make enough money, but you can lose it all.” It accurately explains the harm that fluctuations can cause to us. Is a warlord still a warlord without his soldiers?
In the capital market, any of your gains require a base, and this base is your principal. Without principal, you are a marshal without soldiers, an artilleryman without cannons, and a musketeer without gunpowder.
Therefore, you must protect your capital indefinitely. Any unplanned drawdown should be treated as a complete failure, rather than closing your account and acting like an ostrich, then rewarding the blogger's account with two rockets, and then privately messaging me with tears in my eyes, "Teacher, do you think my account can be saved?"
I have only one answer: "Cut it off, it's all burnt."
