This week I am going to write an article titled "A Brief Analysis of Cefi Dual Currency Investment", and next week I am going to write an article titled "Opportunities and Risks Brought by FTX to Defi". It is expected to be published soon.
A lot of things have happened in the past few days, and I feel complicated. When I calm down and think about it, I talked with a friend in the workplace at the beginning of the year about the topic of resignation and future plans. The core keyword is "ten years". In fact, if you don't pay attention to correcting the long road of investment, you will often fall into a vicious circle of only focusing on pulling the cart and not paying attention to watching the road. The signature of my WeChat Moments is also the state I have always pursued: "Do the right thing, stick to the right path and don't be surprised." Recently, I have been thinking about what my next 10 years will be like, what kind of life I will live, and what kind of things I will do. The following are some recent thoughts on investment, which are still being revised.
1. Think about investment from a 10-year perspective. The most important thing in investment is risk control.
It is a foolish dream to believe that after experiencing a series of tests such as stock market crashes, circuit breakers, trade frictions, epidemics, LUNA zeroing, and FTX thunderstorms, it can cope with the future "Lehman moment" test. The truly major crises in the past were at the cost of subverting the previous generation of investors' understanding of crises. Therefore, from the long cycle of 10-30 years, I now have a deeper understanding of several analogies: "Investing is like hunting", "Gecko-style investment method", "Investing is like playing baseball". Anyway, staying still is also a kind of effort. Not moving is a higher level of concentration. Only when the profit and loss ratio is sufficient, will you attack and really leave enough safety margin for yourself. Suddenly I remembered a sentence that Munger once said: "Really good investment is a wonderful combination of patience and aggressiveness." The more I think about it, the more I feel that the principles of all things are connected. Thinking about "how to grasp the degree, or critical point, of patience and aggressiveness" from a more practical dimension does require thinking and exploring in combination with one's own investment philosophy, investment strategy, and personality traits. The longer I invest, the more I feel I have to be myself. If we imitate others, we will never find the long-term survival rules that really suit us. So how can we win in this extremely fierce knockout round?
2. When thinking about investment over a 10-year period, making the right choice is more important than the size of your position.
Recently, I have invested about 60% of my time in the Crypto circle. I always feel that I want to have enough positions from the perspective of B in this bear market. B, E, and A have all set the appropriate absolute number of B to be stored in 23 years. I always feel that if I don’t store enough positions during the bear market, I will most likely have FOMO emotions during the bull market. But if I really extend the observation time period according to Ahr999’s idea, I will find that there is a difference of 4 years between 3 BTC and 9 BTC. Of course, it may not be exactly 4 years. The position is really not that important in the long term. The important thing is to really choose the right one. (9 God’s article about position investment and extending the time period to look at the crypto field really inspired me a lot)
Take the example of US stocks again. Investors who have fully held S&P 500 in the past 10-30 years will also lose to investors who only held 10% of Apple or Microsoft 30 years ago. Moreover, the US stock market has been in a long bull market in the past 30 years, and other capital markets are very different from it. Because of this, I have been very cautious in choosing private equity fund investment advisors in the past two years. I rebalance once a year, and it is enough to choose an investment advisor who has been observed for more than one year from the bench to the main position. In terms of positions, I will not be too entangled in the number of problems within an order of magnitude of stockpiling. Taking time to learn some financial knowledge and do more building is a more cost-effective choice.
3. Think about investment in a 10-year dimension and keep evolving to avoid being knocked off the table.
In the first few years of investment, I had a "traversal" mentality and always wanted to find an investment system that could defeat all opponents by learning various martial arts. Later, asset allocation became my underlying investment system. However, as I learned and understood more new strategies such as options and other derivative strategies, and arbitrage trading strategies in the past six months, I found that this wish was really unrealistic. The underlying investment philosophy and system can be relatively solidified and slowly iterated, and the upper-level target research and trading strategies need to continue to evolve. Many people like to take Ba Lao's value investment as an example when the market is not good and the investment is trapped, but if we observe carefully, we will find that the industries and companies bought by heavy positions in recent years are very different from those in the previous 10 years (such as investing in Apple, such as investing and selling BYD). Old leeks who have experienced more than two rounds of bull and bear in this market will feel that the real investment road is very lonely. Enjoying the loneliness of a cup of coffee and a book, and repeatedly carving yourself according to "On Practice" is the only way out, which is also the interesting part of investment.
4. Conclusion
The word "10 years" has made me think a lot recently. There are vivid scenes when I talked with friends at the beginning of the year, the slogan of "not leaving the card table" when the three brothers gathered at the beginning of the year, and some new plans for next year. When I think of "10 years" and use this word to examine what I am doing now and what I will do in the future, I really understand what is important and what is not so important. I will continue to do some subtraction in the future to focus on the important things.
