Bitcoin has repeatedly touched around $91,000-$92,000 and rebounded, indicating strong short-term support at this position, and it is unlikely to fall in the short term. On the 4-hour level, it has already shown a 123 pattern.

First, breaking through the downward trend line;

Second, creating higher highs;

Third, avoiding the formation of lower lows, which seems to be happening. The selling side also shows signs of weakness. If it can continue to close at this position and further create higher highs and higher lows, the subsequent rebound will likely continue.


There are two main zones in the vacuum area where Bitcoin previously fell:

One is a lower area, where the possibility of a rebound is relatively small, and the current rebound strength is not strong.

Another position is between $96,000 and $97,600, which is an important support area. At the same time, based on Fibonacci retracement, this area is between 50% and 61.8%. There is still a high probability that this vacuum zone will be reached again.

The vacuum zone usually rebounds because there is a gap that needs to be filled, and the price distribution is relatively sparse, making it easier for prices to rise. In addition, there are many stop-loss positions for short positions in this area, which further increases the probability of a price rebound.

Finally, let's predict the trend of Bitcoin for the next six months:

1. From today to the next half week, there is a chance to rebound weakly to between $96,000 and $98,000.

2. Next, market sentiment turns bearish again, either touching the downward trend line or not touching it, directly going to the range of $86,000-$88,000. In extreme cases, it may go back to fill the CME gap of $78,000, likely around the 16th-18th. Before Trump took office, the market created a golden pit and quickly rebounded.

3. After Trump took office, he signed a series of policies that saved and benefited Bitcoin, including how to promote Bitcoin reserves, the procedure law enforcement agencies need to follow to sell Bitcoin, and the CFTC began to clarify enforcement boundaries more clearly than the SEC. Market sentiment began to warm up, breaking through the downward trend line before the end of February, and returning to $100,000.

4. From February 4 to February 8, the first quarter market started, breaking through previous highs, reaching $114,000. In mid to late February, there was a pullback, and by the end of February to early March, there was a strong rally, reaching above $140,000, and then encountering a significant pullback.

5. In mid-May, the market again entered a harsh state, and concerns about the arrival of a bear market began. As the Federal Reserve gradually made it clear that it would cut interest rates again in early June, the market warmed up again, returning to $140,000, breaking through $150,000, completing the top formation of this bull market, and starting to distribute. The bear market gradually arrives, and the specific timing is difficult to estimate.

The most important thing in the above deduction is not the precise price at a point in time, but as retail investors, we need to understand the objective rhythm of the market and the subjective intentions of the big players: without sufficient fear, and without enough consolidation and accumulation, it is difficult to have a large-scale rise. We must distinguish between large-scale rises and small-scale rebounds, and differentiate between deep corrections and shallow pullbacks. We should avoid always running at the wrong rhythm, being out of bullets when it's time to bottom out, and having no chips or not making enough profit when it's time to reduce positions. Ultimately, it's about being more fearful than others when they are fearful, and being greedy when others are greedy, earning just $1 more and then exiting.

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