The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) is cleared to sell 69,0

The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) is cleared to sell 69,000 $BTC - worth over $6B. How does this compare to past major Bitcoin sell-offs? Let’s break down the scale and potential impact 🧵👇

#BTC

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#Bitcoin short-term demand momentum has continued to weaken. One key indicator: Hot Capital (capital revived over the last 7 days) has plunged 66.7% from its December 12 peak of $96.2B to $32.0B: https://glassno.de/4fUzAK1

The Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis ($88k) remains a critical level for evaluating #Bitcoin price momentum. By utilizing the URPD metric, we can observe a lack of volume below the STH cost-basis, suggesting a decisive loss of this level could lead to further downside.

#BTC Futures Open Interest (OI) shows declining speculative momentum. The mid-term trendline (30-day SMA) peaked and is now slightly declining, while the short-term trendline (7-day SMA) has fallen below it. This indicates that traders have been closing positions, in response to uncertain market conditions.

Despite #Bitcoin's impressive rally last year, MVRV levels above 3.2 - the typical threshold for extreme euphoria - haven’t been reached this cycle. If #BTC were to reach this level, it would correspond to a price of ~$132K: https://glassno.de/4gFov0y

The #Bitcoin market has shifted into a distribution phase at the turn of the year, with Accumulation Trend Score currently at 0.21. This suggests net selling across most holder cohorts: https://glassno.de/4h6HSPX

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