With Donald Trump officially taking office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, this is a sure sign that a series of reform measures will be announced soon, especially for the emerging cryptocurrency industry. As Bitcoin breaks through $100,000 and creates a new high, it seems that the encryption industry has fallen into a swamp. Bitcoin is jumping up and down at the $100,000 mark. In addition, there will be a long crypto news vacuum period in February. Market conditions need to be treated with caution.
From campaigning to being shot to being elected: the biggest benefits and expectations are given in advance!
Take a look at Trump's entire process from campaign to election. He gave the top ten cryptocurrency new policies at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. Most of them were in the sentence "If I am elected, I will XXXX". Let's review it together. :
Making the United States the Cryptocurrency Capital of the World
Stop cracking down on the crypto industry within one hour of taking office
Prevent the U.S. government from further developing CBDC
Build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler
Prevent the United States from selling its Bitcoin holdings
Cryptocurrency proposed to solve US debt problem
Propose a comprehensive encryption policy
Formation of Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee
Reduce the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of "Silk Road"
Among them, "making the United States the global cryptocurrency capital" has put the encryption community in the spotlight, allowing more voters involved in cryptocurrency transactions to support his candidacy for the US president. Trump's series of eye-catching remarks have injected optimism into the market, but as the inauguration is over, no specific actions to fulfill these promises are immediately announced in the short term, causing some investors to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
But just two days ago, Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. The press conference was initially promoted as an economic development announcement, revealing that Dubai developer Damac Properties was investing $20 billion in building data centers in the United States. plan. But at this press conference, Trump proposed new issues in four directions: increasing the proportion of military expenditures among NATO members, making Canada the 51st state of the United States, not giving up military occupation of the Panama Canal and Greenland, and The Gulf of Mexico was renamed the "Gulf of the United States".
The "desire for territorial expansion" revealed between the lines suddenly made the international situation tense, and the mood of confrontation between countries spread. This also indirectly caused "riots" in the encryption market, and the encryption market showed a downward trend. According to news on January 7, Coinglass data showed that the entire 24-hour cryptocurrency market contract liquidation amounted to $346 million, of which long orders liquidated $282 million and short orders liquidated $63.4724 million. The total liquidation amount of Bitcoin was US$69.5948 million, and the total liquidation amount of Ethereum was US$59.6889 million.
From his words "Fight!" after being shot during the previous campaign, to his positive speech about encryption during the Bitcoin conference, and finally to his election as president, Trump has brought unprecedented attention to the encryption industry, and the encryption industry has also provided Trump with unprecedented attention. Provided more support and funding. And when it officially takes office on January 20, the encryption industry will most likely usher in a stage where "the real benefits are the negatives."
February: There is no smoke without fire, and the market goes sideways.
Let’s take another look at the 2025 Fed meeting schedule.
The first time: January 28-29, 2025, interest rate decision
The second time: March 18-19, 2025, interest rate decision + economic outlook
StarEx exchange analysts believe that the strong data has dampened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. The market had previously widely expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, but this expectation was quickly lowered after the release of recent economic data. Some analysts even believe that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates throughout this year, and even if it does, the magnitude will be very limited. Aditya Bhave, U.S. economist at Bank of America, said in a note to clients on Wednesday that "there are growing signs that inflation is trending upward" and that given the timing of the government change, the Fed may have completed the cycle. the last rate cut.
Taken together, regarding the first Federal Reserve meeting, the obvious correction of U.S. stocks in recent days has also brought greater uncertainty to the market. There is a high probability that this month’s interest rate meeting will maintain no interest rate cut, and the market will not be affected in the short term. More benefits.
In addition, looking at the major Web3 calendars, the encryption industry was as quiet as water in February, with no more big moves happening, and there will be a vacuum period for encryption news. There is a high chance that the cryptocurrency market in February will show a trend of sideways consolidation, low trading volume, and weakening volatility. Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate within a relatively narrow range, with neither a clear upward nor a significant downward trend. Moreover, trading activities have decreased, the overall market activity has decreased, and the price fluctuations have become smaller.
Crypto-trend Elon Musk: X will not use cryptocurrency for payment in the near future
Musk recently talked about X payment-related topics on the X Live (Stream) test: "There are no plans to use cryptocurrency in the Launch of X Payments service.
This statement does not prove that Musk does not support cryptocurrency. Perhaps it is because of the compliance considerations of platform payment. Legal currency payment is more in line with the current development needs and compliance requirements. However, this also makes many crypto enthusiasts feel like they are being cheated. A blow to the head and panic arose.
In addition, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in the latest blog post (Sasa): In the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether U.S. dollar liquidity can offset the impact of the slow implementation of Trump’s policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure would be a safe option. This also reflects that the market direction in the first quarter is difficult to predict, and it is almost impossible to capture the definite benefits. Cautious wait-and-see is not a better choice.
Summarize
Although Trump painted a promising blueprint for the encryption industry during the campaign and promised to shape the United States into the global cryptocurrency capital, his actual actions after taking office are yet to be clear. As crypto news enters a vacuum in February, market participants need to be wary of potential policy uncertainty and the impact of changes in the international situation on the market. After Trump officially takes office, whether the crypto utopia he described can set off a new crypto wave, or whether the previously promised new crypto policy can be implemented quickly, will be enough to form a new round of benefits and continue to push Bitcoin higher. The market situation launched an impact.
This article is reproduced with permission from: (PANews)
Original author: Meta Era
"Trump is about to take office!" The crypto market has mixed feelings. When will Bitcoin reach new highs? 』This article was first published in "CryptoCity"
