Bitcoin has recorded three consecutive bearish candles, and they are quite substantial. The downward trend is very clear. With the U.S. stock market closed, the Silk Road Bitcoin unlock, and many people going short due to support levels, the anticipated rebound has yet to arrive. However, we still hold on to the possibility of a rebound, and it all depends on the U.S. stock market opening tonight. If the non-farm payroll can provide an extreme reversal opportunity like the sharp drop in December.
Analyzing the current market trend from four aspects, the possibility of a rebound:
① Four-hour chart
After the previous rebound and surge of Ethereum and Bitcoin reached a peak, this time the negative impact led to a decisive and rapid decline. However, from the four-hour chart, there is a certain expectation for stabilization and an oversold rebound.
② Trump supports the crypto market
Taking office on the 20th, he has recently been actively engaging with some institutions and leading figures in the crypto market. It may currently be a period of fluctuation before a decline to create space, waiting for support to gradually boost the market.
③ Contract liquidation chart
From the chart, it can be seen that the contract liquidation chart for BTC/ETH based on a 10% fluctuation shows that currently, the bears are about five times the holdings of the bulls. Therefore, even if we are not bullish at present, we absolutely cannot chase shorts, especially since the price bottom has not broken. It is most taboo in a bull market to chase highs and sell lows; I believe the market makers will not allow this wave of shorts to profitably exit.
④ Bitcoin on-chain data URPD
From the current perspective, after last night, the support at 92,000 and 93,000 is still very strong. It all depends on tonight. Furthermore, with the U.S. stock market opening tonight and the weekend approaching, if the sentiment is good tonight, the weekend will definitely not be bad.
If there is an opportunity to get near 98,000, remember to reduce your position in time; do not expect the rebound to turn into a reversal.
Because the large structure and gloomy mood are difficult to resolve in the short term. Even if tonight's non-farm payroll data brings an exaggerated rebound, we still do not expect a reversal tonight, and we still look forward to the next wave of buying opportunities.
Lastly, speaking of AI, on-chain AI experienced a crazy drop yesterday, and the market will filter out truly valuable AI projects, which will continue to rise. Therefore, it is essential to pay close attention after a few days.
Pippin has been making a framework upgrade, and recently it has been rising sharply. It's really impressive that it can still surge against the trend; another strong performer on-chain is the no-code platform BUILD, which can be a key focus later.
AI is far from over; this is just the beginning. AI will restart the crypto market. Imagine in the future, everyone having an AI assistant, and then AI can help you manage and allocate funds, requiring you to do nothing. This is the ultimate goal of AI.
From this perspective, framework types can be likened to public chains, requiring collaboration and support for the ecosystem. In contrast, DeFi types are application-based, which can more directly reach users; the potential is considerable. AI currently has many variations, with many projects aimed at raising funds. We must choose projects with a solid team and background, especially those rooted in the AI field; such projects are unlikely to fail.
