Source: Talking Li Talk Outside
In the past few days, many partners have been posting various videos of fires, as Los Angeles is burning... I also watched a few videos; the situation is indeed severe, with various luxury homes turning to ashes in an instant. From above, it looks like a disaster. As shown in the figure below.
I also saw a video on social media where a reporter asked Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass some related questions. The mayor remained silent, and a Chinese netizen in the comments said: 'Can't you see that her hair is burned? Why are you still asking?'
I have to say our netizens are quite talented, with humorous and sharp language. Of course, when facing such a merciless fire, we hope everyone can stay safe and not take pleasure in others' misfortunes.
Let's not discuss the fire incident here; those concerned can check the latest videos and updates on X. Next, let's continue discussing the market. Since yesterday, the market has experienced further corrections, with Bitcoin dropping to around 91,000 dollars. Following historical conventions, negative news usually follows, such as the recent discussions about the U.S. government selling Bitcoin.
Remember in a previous article from Talking Li Talk Outside, we mentioned a story about Silk Road, when the U.S. government seized a large amount of Bitcoin. As shown in the figure below.
As of now, according to Bitcoin Treasuries, the U.S. government still holds 198,109 seized Bitcoins, most of which are said to be linked to Silk Road. As shown in the figure below.
Just a few days ago, according to DB News (a news aggregator platform), a U.S. federal judge ruled that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) can sell 69,370 Bitcoins seized from Silk Road. As shown in the figure below.
Although this news seems yet to receive further official confirmation, and based solely on the judge's ruling, it does not necessarily mean that the corresponding Bitcoin will be immediately liquidated for sale, as it is said that the Department of Justice's handling of seized assets involves multiple administrative steps and potential appeals. Moreover, based on last year's German government's selling situation, even if they really intend to sell Bitcoin on the market, this process may take several months to complete.
But the market and some people seem to be quite frightened...
In fact, this is not the first time that news about the U.S. government selling this portion of Bitcoin has emerged. In 2022, the Northern District of California (California's Northern District Court) ruled that these assets could be sold, but at that time, Battle Born Investments (a company claiming to have rights to the seized Bitcoin through bankruptcy property) raised ownership claims over these assets. Since then, this batch of Bitcoin has remained untouched in the U.S. government's wallet, as we can verify through on-chain data. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, if you really care about this news, the simplest approach is just to monitor the wallet shown in the figure above. Additionally, I found that some people propose a more interesting hypothesis: the reason the U.S. government is doing this (revealing this information) is to encourage retail investors to hand over their chips, facilitating large U.S. institutions to continue buying at lower prices, as they have already sold the Bitcoin from Silk Road that they previously seized. Whether this hypothesis is reasonable or not, we do not discuss here; we neither support nor oppose it.
Looking back, this situation is quite interesting. On one hand, a crypto-friendly president, Trump, is about to take office, while on the other hand, the current government is planning to sell Bitcoin. Are some current government officials really not giving Trump 'face'? I remember last year (2024) at the Bitcoin conference, Trump stated that if he were to return to the White House, he would ensure the government retains 100% of its Bitcoin and would consider listing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the U.S.
In summary, as far as news sentiment is concerned, we really don't pay much attention to this kind of emotional news. Or to put it more bluntly, if the market experiences a significant correction because of this, it can also be viewed as another opportunity for you to re-enter the market.
Or, to take a step back, what would happen if the U.S. government really sold Bitcoin 'on the market' like the German government did last year?
Theoretically, the market could absorb these 69,370 Bitcoins, as Bitcoin's Realized Cap has increased to 381.7 billion dollars over the past 365 days, while the potential selling pressure from the U.S. government's Silk Road is approximately 6.5 billion dollars at current prices. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, emotional influences may lead to a larger market correction, for example, directly dropping the price to the 75,000–80,000 dollar range. What then? Are you thinking of buying at the bottom again? To be honest, if it really comes to that, you probably won't or won't dare to buy at the bottom; otherwise, you would have already bought at the 40,000 or 50,000 dollar range. Or to take a step back, even if you think you're lucky to buy Bitcoin at 75,000 dollars and bravely buy at the bottom, what will you do if Bitcoin drops to around 72,000 (the 0.382 level)? Do you have a Plan B? Of course, all of the above is hypothetical. As for how the short-term market will move, we cannot predict accurately.
Today I found that the group is quite lively, some partners are considering selling, while others are considering buying at the bottom. However, Boss Heng's summary is quite on point. If you are doing short-term trading, you must prepare your plan in advance. As shown in the figure below.
No one can consistently buy at so-called lows and sell at so-called highs. To achieve high returns, you must first assess the high risks of the market and evaluate your personal risk tolerance.
Additionally, the next day is quite special: January 10, 2024 (January 11 at midnight Beijing time) marks the official approval of the BTC ETF. It has been a whole year since then. So how has Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', performed over this year? Let's take a look at the comparative chart of Bitcoin and gold trends:
Continuing from the perspective of ETFs, the first gold ETF (GLD) in the U.S. was officially launched in 2004, and the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was officially approved in 2024! After the launch of GLD, it took two years to surpass 10 billion dollars, while IBIT (the BTC ETF launched by BlackRock) exceeded the 10 billion dollar mark in just seven weeks. As of January 9, 2025, the latest market value of the ETF (GLD) is 75.13 billion dollars, while the current market value of IBIT has reached 52.45 billion dollars.
