[Analysis of Major Trends]
According to the ruling made on December 30, 2024, the U.S. Justice Department won the lawsuit against Battle Born Investments regarding Bitcoin ownership.
In the past, the U.S. government has sold Bitcoin multiple times, with the most recent sale in March 2023, raising $216 million. The U.S. government also announced in January 2024 plans to liquidate $117 million worth of Bitcoin, but there have been no new updates so far.
In mid-2024, U.S. judicial police stated that they had signed an asset custody agreement with Coinbase exchange.
Since then, U.S. officials' cryptocurrency wallets have frequently transferred funds to Coinbase, specifically including 30,175 BTC ($2.1 billion) in April, 29,800 BTC ($2.02 billion) in July, and 10,000 BTC ($594 million) in August, as well as 19,780 BTC ($1.92 billion) in December. All these BTC are believed to come from Silk Road.
However, at present, it has only been approved, and there is no specific date determined for when these Bitcoins will be sold. There are only 11 days left until Trump officially takes office on January 20. He has previously stated that he will not sell any Bitcoins after taking office. Given the efficiency of the U.S. government, it remains to be seen whether the Justice Department can successfully sell these Bitcoins.
Perhaps this plunge is somewhat related to this news. However, overall, the upward trend still exists. Currently, it is mainly retail investors who are cutting losses, while large investors are bottom-fishing.
This decline has caused many retail investors to panic sell their BTC, leaving a lot of operational space for Trump once he takes office. For now, we can only hope for his market performance after taking office.
[Analysis of Major Trends]
BTC recently broke through the 100,000 mark again, and it was thought to end the 15-day range oscillation, but a wave of false signals came in. This does not affect the situation; after all, similar trends will occur in a bull market, and as long as the trend doesn't change, there is no problem.
Currently, the market still suggests maintaining large positions in cash, waiting for opportunities. This is something I have emphasized multiple times; since it is a weekly level adjustment, it won't end so quickly.
Holding a large position in altcoins is definitely uncomfortable right now, as holding large positions under such extreme market conditions tests one's mindset.
Next, we need to focus on the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, as this will affect short-term market sentiment and price trends.
This decline is likely a risk-averse reaction to the non-farm data. If the non-farm data shows rising unemployment and declining jobs, the Federal Reserve may open up more rate cuts.
BTC currently has a key support level at the 92,000 line, which is also the bottom of the range. Previously, we mentioned that BTC operates within the range of 92,000—99,900. Now BTC is in a stage of overselling, so focus on the strength of the rebound.
Don't let a false breakout affect your mindset; maintain a good state. Currently, the overall market structure has not deteriorated, and pay attention to the support at the 92,000 line. If it breaks below on a four-hour level, be cautious of the risks and adjust your positions.
[Altcoin Spot Suggestions]
ETH also experienced a wave of false breakouts, synchronizing with BTC, and has returned to the range of 3,200—3,500. For now, focus on temporarily not entering any operations.
