The current stage of the market trigger points depends on two aspects:

Trump's positive policies and expectations of interest rate cuts. Trump's positive policies are not easy to implement within the next few months, so there is only a favorable sentiment in terms of rhetoric, thus we need to focus on the expectations of interest rate cuts. After yesterday's data was released, the expectations for a rate cut in March were affected by a major recession, leading to reduced expectations for the big cake and the imitation coins adjusting accordingly, and vice versa. If the probability starts to blur, for instance, hovering between 40-60%, the market will be in a consolidation phase. In such a phase, one must be aware of the consolidation; if decent profits are made, they should be secured and not be too ambitious.

Only when the probability of a March rate cut falls below 20% is there a possibility of approaching lower points, even down to 90,000. The focus will then be on the two sets of economic data on the 10th and 15th, as well as the speech following the FOMC meeting on the 29th to determine how the market will actually move.

It has been previously mentioned that the expectations for interest rate cuts would occur in March. I believe the Federal Reserve also wants to see how the tariff rules will be implemented after Trump takes office and whether they will have an impact on inflation after two or three months of execution. Trump took office in late January, so the tariff rules will appear at the earliest next month, and the actual impact of economic data will not show until March at the earliest.

If the Federal Reserve really only cuts rates twice throughout the year, each action must be extremely cautious. For example, during a period when Trump's policies are relatively clear, they might take action once, and the impact of policies on the economy will be adequately reflected in the data and will not be significant before taking the second/third action.

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